‘A mugging by the US president’: What will Trump’s minerals deal mean for Ukraine?

Read time: 4 mins

In brief…

• Trump will meet Zelensky, who he has previously accused of being a dictator and blamed for Russia’s illegal invasion, to discuss a deal to repay the US for support during the conflict.
• The News Agents say that, while there’s been no explicit promise of future security protection from the US, there is an assumption Trump will want to defend those assets from Putin.
• They add that the situation reflects the new state of America, in which every deal must result in the US getting something “bigger and better” in return from any other party involved.

Donald Trump confirmed Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to The White House in the most Donald Trump way imaginable.

"I hear that he’s coming on Friday,” the US president told reporters.

“Certainly it’s OK with me if he’d like to."

Trump has previously referred to the Ukrainian president as a “dictator”, and accused him of starting the war with Russia, which illegally invaded its neighbour in 2022.

It is expected that the two will sign a deal permitting the US to access the rare-earth minerals in Ukraine.

An early draft of the deal, which demanded rights for the US to a guaranteed $500 billion of revenue has been revised, and the two countries will instead jointly develop the Ukrainian resources.

Ukraine is rich in minerals such as copper, nickel, lithium and titanium, used in manufacturing technology, defence systems and green energy. It also has large reserves of oil and gas.

"Donald Trump had said that after all the money that America had spent on Ukraine's defence against the Russian aggression of Vladimir Putin, Ukraine had to pay the money back," says Emily Maitlis.

Trump claims the US has spent upwards of $350 billion in aid to Ukraine, while other estimates suggest that number is closer to $175 billion.

"He demanded $500 billion worth of Ukrainian rare earth minerals, which is deep embedded in the Ukrainian land and would need to come out of the ground and then be handed over to America as some sort of compensation,” Emily adds.

Jon Sopel says that what at first sounded like an "extraordinary, outrageous demand" has now morphed into something Zelensky "thinks he might be able to work with."

What will the deal include?

More is known about what's not in the deal (such as that gift-wrapped promise of $500 billion to the US) than is.

Donald Trump has given no promise that the US will aid the future security of Ukraine, as European countries – including the UK – consider putting troops on the ground, in a peacekeeping capacity, when Russia's invasion ends.

But it can be assumed that a promise of US access to some of those all-important minerals comes with the confirmation of some protection from the power of the US.

"I guess where the guarantee comes is that if Ukraine is paying America in the future, they assume that America will guarantee, if not the security of the people of Ukraine, then the security of the minerals and the resources they want," says Emily.

“America would want to stop Putin from seizing land that would yield them future monetisation, and future riches."

But Jon says if there is no security guarantee in the deal for Ukraine, then the US president has "pinned an unarmed man against the wall".

"It's a mugging," Jon says.

"It's a mugging by the US president of the Ukrainian President to say, 'hand everything over to me, otherwise Vladimir Putin gets what he wants'."

What's The News Agents' take?

Donald Trump is operating at speed to reshape America, its place in the world, and his own legacy.

"Donald Trump says it will secure Ukraine's future, but he will give them the right to fight on. I thought we were getting peace," adds Jon.

"I thought the whole point was that this was a durable peace deal which would happen at the end of this process."

Emily believes his determination to end the war in Ukraine is simply to impress the people of America.

"Trump can sell the Ukraine deal to the American people as a great business," she says.

"It's like Greenland. It's like what Trump wants to do in Gaza with his real estate condos. It's what he wants to do with the Panama Canal. It's what he wants to do with the 51st state – Canada."

But it won't be a case of signing a deal and starting to dig. The land in question is covered in landmines, which will take years to remove to make the area safe, before mining can begin.

The situation between the US and Ukraine, between Trump and Zelensky, is ultimately a reflection of the new state of America, and how all future deals with the US will be conducted while the MAGA president remains in The White House.

"It becomes part of this picture, in which nothing is free," says Emily.

"America is first – and if you want anything from them, they want something back bigger and better."

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