Britain’s prison crisis: First details of Labour sentencing review revealed
With UK prisons at near-record capacity and facing zero availability by November, the Labour government is preparing radical sentencing reforms that could see inmates released after serving just a third of their sentence and an end to short-term prison terms under 12 months.
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In brief:
- The UK prison population is at 88,103 (just 418 short of the record high) and expected to hit zero capacity by November 2025, with populations rising by 3,000 annually.
- A major sentencing review led by David Gauke will likely introduce early release after 33% of a sentence (instead of 50%) and create a presumption against prison sentences under 12 months.
- The News Agents say these changes are driven by capacity failures rather than progressive policy, and Robert Jenrick has argued they could endanger public safety when offenders are released early.
What’s the story?
The prison population in the UK stands at 88,103 - just 418 people shy of the record high it hit in September 2024.
And that’s only set to increase, with the Ministry of Justice warning that the prison population rises by 3,000 each year and is now expected to hit zero capacity by November this year.
As Gen-Z would say, ‘the math ain’t mathing’ - and this math is causing a headache for the Labour government - which says it inherited a prison capacity “crisis” from the last Tory government - and is now searching for urgent action it can take to free up space in prisons.
Some of those ideas include scrapping recall for some prisoners and waiving prison sentences under 12 months, LBC reports.
The proposals are expected to be set out in an upcoming sentencing review by former Conservative justice secretary David Gauke,thought to be the biggest overhaul of the prison system in 30 years.
The changes are expected to free up 9,500 prison places, but Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick said doing so will "put the public in danger and victims in jeopardy".
He has argued for "emergency measures" to speed up the deportation of foreign national offenders instead.
What is expected to be announced in the sentencing review?
Aggie Chambres, LBC political correspondent, exclusively reveals a new progression model is expected to be announced, where inmates would be released after 33% of their sentence, with enhanced supervision in the community for the next 33%.
“At the moment, a standard determinate sentence, you'd be let out after 50% or 40% of your sentence,” she explains on The News Agents.
“In the second third of your sentence, if you get recalled - because you break the supervision licensing - you would then go back to prison for a set number of days, 56 days.”
Recalled prisoners are individuals who break the terms of their license (rules they must follow when released back into the community) and are therefore returned to prison. They currently account for approximately 15% of the prison population.
Currently, those subject to recall need to wait for a Parole Board to decide when they can be re-released - a process the government says is taking months.
The final third of the sentence would involve no probation supervision at all and - as Chambres reveals - no recall, meaning inmates would not return to prison for breaking licensing conditions unless they commit another crime.
“So if you're still serving your sentence, you could break your licensing conditions, but you wouldn't go back to prison.
“That's going to be a pretty big change in terms of people no longer being recalled in that final bit.”
Individuals would only be released for this final third if they've behaved well, mirroring moves made in Texas to also help deal with overcrowding.
Another reform expected to be announced will change who goes to prison - with a presumption against short sentences under 12 months, with community-based alternatives instead.
Chambres explains; “There'll be a presumption against short sentences we expect, which basically means, if you're sentenced to under 12 months, you wouldn't necessarily go to prison. The presumption would be against doing that.
“That's something David Gauke has been in favour of for a long time.”
What’s The News Agents’ take?
Whilst many people have argued, for a long time, that the current sentencing structure doesn’t work and a review is needed, Emily Maitlis argues that the changes expected to be laid out in the review are “not progressive policy, it's just a failure of capacity”.
And Lewis Goodall agrees, adding that the announcement will be “politically difficult”.
“It is very hard to get away from the suspicion that a lot of this is being driven by contingencies, it’s being driven by a requirement to simply send fewer people to prison, because we just don't have the institutional structure.
“If we had that capacity, they wouldn't be doing this.”
This, Lewis says, leaves the government open to criticism from its opponents in the Conservative and Reform UK parties - something he suspects Robert Jenrick will waste no time in doing.
“As soon as one of these guys is released, they will find him, and if they've committed another crime, you can imagine that Jenrick video is going to light up the online right space - as he does every single week.”
However, there are some “sophisticated” arguments in the information Chambres has gained on the review, Lewis says, in particular, around scraping sentences shorter than 12 months.
“The argument is that a lot of those people who are often given sentences of less than 12 months, they're homeless, they've got addiction problems, or whatever it happens to be.
“Therefore you're simply compounding these problems by sending them to prison.”