Can we no longer trust political polling?
An investigation into Reform UK exposed alleged attempts to commission polls that showed them as the most popular party in the country. Can the polling industry still be trusted – and does it still work?
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What’s the story?
Reform UK has made polling something of a dirty word.
In early September 2026, a Channel 4 investigation uncovered evidence that Reform had paid for and commissioned polls to show it remained the most popular party in the UK with potential voters.
The party claims it did no wrong. The MET Police are now conducting an investigation.
During Keir Starmer’s time leading the Labour government, Reform held a vast lead on UK polling, with many heralding a potential end of the UK’s two-party system, even more so when Zack Polanski’s Green Party also began racing up in public opinion.
But during 2026, that lead has significantly diminished, with Labour once again seeming strong under Andy Burnham’s new leadership.
“I have always taken the view that polling is really helpful to us as a guide in the dark to where political trends might be moving,” says Jon Sopel.
He says the Reform revelations have shone a "deeply uncomfortable" light on what once many felt could be trusted and relied on in politics, even if only as a guide.
Luke Tryl of polling company More In Common, tells The News Agents, that political parties often come to him for data and research – although not, as Reform are alleged to have done, to specifically commission a poll which favours their election chances.
Did the death of the landline take trust in polling with it?
Polling was once conducted by phoning people at home. Landlines are rare now, and most people hate nothing more than answering calls from unknown numbers on their mobiles.
Emily Maitlis says the very nature of modern society may mean that the only people attending in-person polling sessions are those with free time to spare.
People who take part in polling today are often tempted with payment for their time.
“The reason we pay people again is so we don't just get a Question Time-type audience of people who'd love to come and talk about politics,” Tryl says.
“The £50-£60 you might get for a focus group is just less attractive to high-earners than for some people who see it as a great top up to my wage.”
He says paying people for their time revealed interesting details of Reform voters in 2025.
“One of the things we found in last year's local elections was that Reform voters were the most likely to say that they ordinarily didn't vote, but that they were going to vote this time,” he says.
“It turned out they were growing the electorate.”
The problem with polling
Of course, polling will never be an exact science, and as a pollster himself, warns against considering poll findings as any sort of conclusion.
“Lots of criticism of polling comes from treating polling as the end point, when in fact it's the starting point. It is where people are now,” Tryl says.
This, he adds, can help political parties adjust their strategies to appeal to or work alongside those political stances.
He says the biggest challenge for polling companies is, and has always been, under-representing right-wing voters.
He says polling in 2024 may not have included enough "rich, white Tories" because financial incentives for taking part did not appeal to them. Additionally, "non-graduates" who vote for right-wing parties are also underrepresented in polling, simply because they do not sign up.
Despite Reform potentially raising questions about how political parties work with polling companies, Tryl says it will continue to happen, and will always be a tricky process for both sides.
“Where parties and politics go wrong is where people stick their finger in your ear and say they're right, and believe what polls find isn't an accurate representation of the public,” he says.
“Sometimes organisations will get some polling back and decide that they don't want to publish it.”
The shift from phoning people on their landlines to inviting them to fill in an online form has meant more focus on the over-75s, who are much less likely to engage with technology.
Polls now often include a question in white text to catch out any AI bots which may have been deployed to carry out surveys for nefarious reasons.
“What you don't want is the sort of person who would want to sit and fill out a survey for nothing,” he adds.
“They are, by their nature, unusual and politically motivated."