Could we see another insurrection in the US if Donald Trump doesn’t win?
Many of Donald Trump's supporters refused to accept that Joe Biden legitimately beat him in the 2020 election, and what happened next shocked the world. With the Republican running again, could history repeat itself?
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In brief…
- With Kamala Harris replacing the Joe Biden as the Democrats’ presidential nominee, the possibility of a Donald Trump loss may seem more likely
- But four years ago, his supporters did not respect the election result, storming the Capitol in protest
- US intelligence could be prepared for this backlash, but there is still a danger of unrest, The News Agents say.
It was a dark day for democracy.
January 6, 2020, the day Donald Trump’s supporters stormed the Capitol in a violent attempt to overturn the election result.
Four years later, now some are questioning whether this could happen all over again.
With the assassination attempt on Trump in Pennsylvania ascending the former President to near martyrdom status, could his fans be even more riled up this time?
And if Kamala Harris does beat the Republican in November, would the country be prepared for a potential backlash from Trump’s militant support base?
Will Trump fans try it again?
The question, which came from The News Agents listener Lucy, is one Jon Sopel has mulled.
Jon says: “For the future of American democracy, is it more likely that there'll be disturbance if he wins, or if he loses. And in the short term, I think the danger of political unrest is obviously heightened if he loses.”
But that does not necessarily mean a repeat of January 6.
Jon adds: “I don't know whether we will ever have circumstances, so propitious as November 2020, when we're in the midst of the madness of COVID and there have been so many more postal votes than had ever been lodged in an election before. I don't know what Trump's excuse will be.”
And even if there is similar uproar from Trumplicans, Jon suspects they might not be able to do the same kind of damage again.
Would they pose a threat?
This time, Jon says the intelligence, the law enforcement agencies, are in a different place than they were in 2020.
He says: “When the Capitol was overwhelmed, they couldn't resist the crowd. I think that this time round, there'll be huge amounts of law and order on the streets to ensure that something like that is not repeated.”
Jon would know, as he was there for Biden's inauguration on January 20, 2021.
He said there were “rows and rows of razor wire along streets, army Humvees, at the end of every block about a mile from the Capitol”
You also had to show a special pass to get anywhere near while going through checkpoint after checkpoint.
“It was like a warzone”, says Jon.
How will Trump and Republican candidates react to another defeat?
Emily Maitlis refers to the question she asked Kari Lake - a Republican Senate candidate going for Arizona - at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.
That was: “Will you accept the results?”
Emily says: “Kari Lake standing to be a senator in Arizona, a very tight swing state, didn't concede last time around.
“In fact, she wanted to send her opponents to prison for believing that Donald Trump should back down. And so the question is now: "What will he tell people to do?"
The other question Emily asks is: “What will they decide to do?”
Listen to the latest episode of The News Agents here: Q&A Special: Your questions about the American elections