Did Tony Blair just endorse Shabana Mahmood as Starmer’s replacement?
The leadership challenge rumours continue to swirl around Keir Starmer. Labour MPs are staying silent for now, but are some of his key frontbenchers making quiet moves for future bids?
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In brief…
- At a London event this week, Tony Blair interviewed Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, praising her politics as leadership challenge rumours continue to swirl around Keir Starmer. Can this be considered an endorsement?
- The News Agents say that Mahmood is one of the few rising stars of the Labour Party, and her stance would put her in a strong position to continue Starmer’s legacy should he be toppled.
- Labour’s approach to the next election may need to focus on simply beating Nigel Farage, meaning Wes Streeting’s perceived courting of the soft-left may be where its members place their loyalty.
What’s the story?
Next time Keir Starmer stands to speak in the House of Commons, does he need to watch his back?
Less than 18 months into his time as PM, rumours are swirling about who may be lining up to take his place, with names such as Wes Streeting, Shabana Mahmood and Angela Rayner among those tipped as his possible successor.
Mahmood, Home Secretary since September 2025, now appears to have support from Tony Blair.
At a Christmas event for the Tony Blair Institute, the former Labour Prime Minister interviewed Mahmood in front of guests, including The News Agents. It took place on the same night as a Downing Street Christmas party.
And while he didn’t endorse Mahmood directly, they say the timing of the public conversation – with speculation around Starmer’s leadership – is of great significance.
“Sorry, but there was just something very particular about the timing of what we saw last night,” says Emily Maitlis.
“Blair was praising Mahmood's 'radical style', her political philosophy. It was very touchy feely.
“It felt like a benediction, and it felt like an endorsement, because the word 'radical' is a very Blair word. His philosophy has always been that you can be from the centre and still be radical.”
Emily admits, however, that she may be “overthinking” it.
Has Mahmood hitched her cart to the wrong wagon?
The shadow of Tony Blair looms large over the Labour Party, and UK politics to this day – but does he still have the positive influence and impact that Mahmood might be hoping for?
"I think appearing at Tony Blair's Christmas party is probably not a huge help for Mahmood – given that the membership of the party is not that Blairite anymore," says Jon Sopel.
"She is a really impressive politician. I think she has been brave, she's been bold, and I think the messaging she's doing on immigration puts Labour in the right place, but it makes Labour activists feel uncomfortable, and it probably makes a sizeable number of Labour MPs feel uncomfortable.
"And it's not from that position that you win a leadership contest if Keir Starmer is brought down."
But as the only Labour frontbencher making waves at the moment, Emily suggests she could be the most likely candidate to pick up where Starmer left off – should anything disrupt or end his leadership.
Lewis Goodall says Mahmood has brought an “authoritarian” style to the Home Secretary role, especially in terms of migration.
"To Mahmood's credit, I think she really believes it," he says.
"As a Muslim ethnic minority, senior woman in politics, she expresses explicitly of how toxic this issue has become, and that unless a sense of order is imposed on it, then this will continue to metastasize and poison politics, and it will be the handmaiden to a Reform UK victory at the next election."
But this has not made her popular with Labour Party members – with a recent poll suggesting her approval rating had dropped a startling 32% in recent months.
"If this is a leadership strategy, it is a bad one," Lewis adds.
Is Wes Streeting's strategy any better?
The Health Secretary has denied he plans to make a leadership bid against Keir Starmer, but the rumours persist.
He has spoken of his frustration with his party, saying that alongside achieving some of its goals, Labour has largely acted as little more than a "maintenance department" for the UK.
"Streeting is potentially playing a cleverer game," says Lewis.
"He has been making overtures to the soft-left of the Labour Party. He has talked more about Gaza. He's talked about getting things wrong."
And, he adds, with the political climate in the UK right now, the left and soft-left may be essential when it comes to the next general election.
"There is a clear difference this time. It will be about how to beat Nigel Farage," Lewis adds.
"It will be how to ensure the Labour Party not only survives but defeats the prospect of a hard-right government.
"Streeting's belief will be to say that he – or the Labour Party membership – can't just do what they normally do, that this will be a more grave leadership election, and that Labour Party members should vote with their head and not their heart."