Are Trump’s mates getting ‘filthy rich’ from his war in Iran?

What’s the story?

More than 24 hours on, no one really seems any the wiser exactly what Donald Trump was talking about when he said “constructive” peace talks with Iran had taken place.

The US president has struggled to explain his comments in the day since, saying the talks (fervently denied by Iran) were with an unnamed official.

He has boasted of having drawn up a “15 point plan” with this mysterious high-ranking Iranian – but when quizzed by US journalists was unable to name more than one of them.

But there is also speculation that his announcement had little to do with peace in the Middle East, and more to do with helping his friends earn money on the markets - huge sums, in at least one case.

“The alarm is being sounded over suspicions of insider trading,” says Emily Maitlis.

“There is a question whether some people are getting filthy rich on the back of an announcement that probably wasn't even true.”

At least one person is known to have made around $500 million on a Polymarket bet made on the price of oil falling, made just 14 minutes before Trump shared his claims of successful peace talks with Iran.

“There is a suspicion that people with knowledge of what Trump was about to say went in, started scouting around, picking up stocks here and there,” Emily adds.

“The announcement comes – whack – the price goes up, and they have made their millions.”

Iran’s swift denial resulted in the price soaring once again, but by that point, the trades had been made, the cash had been pocketed.

This is not the first time this has happened under Trump

Previous bets have been placed – and won – on the date the US would strike Iran in 2025, among other curiously accurate and well-timed incidents.

“It's just part of a pattern that we've seen over the past year – whether it be tariffs or anything else – where people seem to know slightly in advance what Donald Trump is going to say and make bets accordingly,” says Jon Sopel.

“Sure enough, 24 hours on, we are now seeing the evidence of that.”

Emily describes the situation as “bluntly outrageous, and corrupt,”

This latest incident coincides with the head of enforcement in the Securities Exchange Commission quitting her job after being told to stop investigating the trading behaviour of the Trump family.

“Thankfully, there are people in the American institutional sphere who are taking this stuff seriously and saying they are not prepared to work in those conditions,” she adds.

“They say that if they're finding corruption, they should be allowed to investigate it.”

Why do people think insider trading may have taken place?

Jon says The News Agents, along with journalists the world over, are still trying to work out why Trump would have made his claim about fictional peace talks with Iran, which is why the possibility of "full scale corruption" here is of such interest to so many people.

“We don't know whether it was just about market manipulation, I don't think Trump made his comments just to help his mates,” Emily says

She believes he lied about peace talks in an attempt to bring down the price of oil for his own position, rather than the wallets of others.

This worked briefly, but long enough for people to make millions.

“He wants the waters there to be calmer. He wants problems to go away,” Emily adds.

“But I think Trump cannot help telling us what he'd like to happen rather than what is happening.

“That's where he wishes he were now, he's trying to magic these peace talks up.”

Listen to the latest episode of The News Agents.