Do Tory voters finally have something to celebrate?

Read time: 5 mins

In brief…

• A new YouGov poll shows the biggest increase in public approval for Kemi Badenoch since she became Tory leader – although the party remains unpopular with voters.
• This in itself, The News Agents say, is a remarkable feat, considering the overwhelming loss they faced at the 2024 election. Can she build on this, or are her days as leader numbered?
• Lewis Goodall says this needs to be kept in perspective, and suggests she may be leading the Tories on “vibes” only – with no real wins under her belt.

What’s the story?

Is there some good news for the beleaguered Tory Party at last?

A new YouGov poll shows that every party leader is disliked by the British public, but Badenoch is slightly less hated than previously thought.

In this polarised climate, politicians probably need to take the wins where they can.

Badenoch's approval rating with Brits is -26, an increase of +6, the biggest experienced since she became leader.

These are the sort of numbers Keir Starmer (-54) and Nigel Farage (-35) might dream of, while it's slightly better news for Ed Davey (-10) and Zack Polanski (-6), who now borders on almost-popular.

There's no victory lap for the opposition just yet, but former frontbencher Theresa Villiers is limbering up, having claimed Badenoch is "dragging the Conservatives back from the brink", in a column written for the Tory-supporting Telegraph newspaper.

"Kemi Badenoch remains, like all politicians, pretty unpopular," says Lewis Goodall.

"But it's also true to say that the Conservatives have stabilised their overall position in the polling. YouGov polls now show the Tories averaging above Labour by a point.

"It has led some to wonder whether or not she has – at the very least – stopped the rot for the Conservative Party, and whether one of the themes of 2026 might be an unexpected comeback for the Tories."

Why Badenoch, why the +6, and why now?

Lewis says Badenoch has put in a “string of pretty credible performances” at Prime Minister’s questions, and has displayed a growing confidence in her role.

Emily says the Tories, in opposition, have taken some Labour “scalps” – most notably former deputy leader Angela Rayner, and an involvement in the downfall of Jeffrey Epstein associate Peter Mandelson.

The party has tried to do the same with Rachel Reeves (to less success), but Emily believes Badenoch’s pushback against Reeves' claims of misogynist and sexist criticism of her time as chancellor won her approval among party members.

"The criticism when Badenoch started was that she was too abrasive. She rubbed people up the wrong way. She was a bit too bristly," Emily says.

"Rachel Reeves has played 'the feminist and misogyny card', saying everyone hates her because she's a woman. Kemi Badenoch took her on, and said no, actually, they don't.

“There are a lot of women who actually were quite wound up by this idea that people didn't like Rachel Reeves because she was a woman, rather than her policies."

Kemi won nods of approval, Emily adds, by "saying that out loud".

But, in the past 18 months the UK's political landscape has changed greatly, with with Labour raising taxes and Reform scooping up hard-right voters, Jon Sopel says there is now a space for the Tories to turn back to Thatcherism – to call for a smaller state, to abolish Stamp Duty – and says Badenoch is “best able” to make that argument.

"I think the big change that has happened is the Conservatives now have an argument to make," Jon says.

“After the July 2024 election, it seemed like they didn't have a tune to sing. Now, they've got one.”

Is this all the natural swing of any political system?

Lewis says that when the Tories had its “Liz Truss period” it seemed inevitable that its reputation for economic competence would last a generation – but perhaps that hasn’t happened.

"The space has opened up, and it was actually impossible to see where the space was even six months ago," he says.

"Maybe it was because they cauterised Liz Truss wound really quickly when they put Sunak in, maybe it's Labour's handling of the economy.

"For an opposition party so recently ejected from government, on every other issue – particularly on public services, there is no particular evidence the public wants to hear from them.

Emily says memories are short when it comes to politics.

"It is a very natural trajectory that the party which has been in power will end up getting less popular because more people end up more unhappy with the choices that are made, and you forget how much you didn't like one party once they're out of power," she adds.

"I don't think we should exaggerate what's happening..."

Maybe the Tory comeback does start here, but even if that is the case, one blue foot remains on the starting line. This isn't a time for Conservative voters to start the celebrations.

"The Tories have dominated British politics for two centuries, and that doesn't just disappear overnight – although it did feel as if they could be on a slow lingering death," Lewis says.

"I don't think we should exaggerate what's happening, because the party continues to poll appallingly, Reform is way ahead of them.

"But it is true that Badenoch appears to have stabilised the situation."

With by-elections fast approaching in May 2026, Lewis adds, being slightly less disliked won’t prevent the Tories from facing a miserable outcome when voters next go to the polls in England and Wales.

"It could be a really, really difficult time for Badenoch, because she's got no real substantial victories in terms of elections or anything like that," he says.

"She's got the vibe. She's got a little bit of momentum back. She's got Westminster, and Westminster journalists may be looking at her again, which is an important first step for her.

"But that could all be the vibes, which can all be undone by an event – and that could be May."

Listen to the latest episode of The News Agents.