Does Labour regret killing off the Rwanda plan?
A migrant deported to France under a new UK returns agreement has returned to the UK on a small boat. With a lack of deterrent since leaving the EU, is it time to reconsider the Tory government’s plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda?
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In brief…
- The UK’s new migrant returns agreement with France is under the spotlight after a man deported came back on a small boat. Is a new deterrent needed?
- The News Agents say the Tories’ expensive plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda could have replaced the returns agreements with the EU which were lost when the UK voted for Brexit in 2016.
- Labour scrapped the Rwanda plan as soon as they came to power in 2024, but allowing it to play out and fail could have been a better plan long term.
What’s the story?
A migrant returned to France under the government’s ‘one in, one out’ scheme has come back to the UK in a small boat.
The man claims he didn’t feel safe in France.
Asylum seekers arriving in the UK on small boats make up 4-6% of migrant people entering the country, but receive an enormous amount of attention from British press, politicians - and the public.
So far this year, 36,816 people have crossed the Channel - meaning more migrants have made a journey in small boats this year than in the whole of 2024.
Both Tory and Labour governments have promised to end the crossings, or ‘smash the gangs’ without success.
When the UK voted for Brexit in 2016, leaving the EU meant an end to returns agreements previously in place with European countries, and numbers of migrant arrivals have increased steadily since then.
"Some people would say that it is no coincidence that this problem has been getting worse since we left those arrangements," says Lewis Goodall.
"It's also true to say the whole of Europe has been suffering more from this problem as well. So it's complicated."
What the UK lacks since leaving the EU is a deterrent, but does that mean it's time to re-evaluate previous plans to deport migrants arriving on small boats in the UK to Rwanda?
Could the Tory Rwanda plan have worked?
That policy, introduced under the previous Conservative government, was scrapped by Keir Starmer on his first day as Prime Minister, having cost UK taxpayers around £310 million before a single person was even deported.
Jon Sopel says that if this scheme was up and running, the asylum seeker who returned to the UK this week wouldn’t have been back on these shores.
"Maybe the Conservative government was right," Jon says.
"Maybe that would have been the way to have dealt with the problem and limited the demand for people to come across on small boats."
But Lewis believes the Rwanda plan would have only made illegally arriving in the UK a longer process for many migrants.
"It would have obviously been harder and taken longer, but I will bet you absolutely anything that people who were sent to Rwanda would have ended up back in the UK," Lewis says.
"They would have gone all the way to Rwanda, and it would have taken longer, but sooner or later, they would have tried their luck again to go back to the UK, because that's what you're dealing with here."
Some asylum seekers are fleeing persecution, some have family in the UK, some want access to the labour market, he says, but all have one thing in common.
"You're dealing with people who are highly, highly determined."
Should Labour have allowed Rwanda to happen, then fail?
There was an alternative to shutting down the Tories' Rwanda plan after Labour won the 2024 election - let it play out, with many expecting it to fail, despite the former government's confidence in their work.
When the plan was ready to launch, it was estimated that Rwanda could take just 300 migrants deported from the UK – and Lewis says this number falls far short of anything able to deter people from attempting to enter the UK.
"It wouldn't have been a massive deterrent, because it would have still been relatively small numbers," he says.
"It may not have been a bad idea – just politically, if nothing else – to allow the Rwanda scheme to play out, because then at least you would be able to turn around to the Tories and to Reform now and say, 'Look, we tried your way, and it didn't work'."
With the conversation about small boats arrivals ongoing and numbers growing, Lewis adds that Labour's rivals can always accuse the party of scrapping an untested idea which may have made an impact.