Does the UK need to prepare for war?
New reports suggest the increased threat posed by Russia will lead NATO to demand countries raise their GDP contributions to 3.5% – when the UK has only this week agreed to 2.5%. Is this simply to plug a potential gap if the US pulls out, or are times really that dark?
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In brief…
- NATO is expected to ask its members to up contributions to 3.5% of GDP at a meeting at the end of June, which could result in UK payments around £30 billion.
- George Robertson, a former NATO secretary general of NATO, tells The News Agents he believes Russia has already declared war on the UK and Europe, and Brits should know what their personal responsibility is in keeping the country secure.
- The News Agents say the government will need to change how it addresses the public on these issues if Robertson is correct, as the extent of the Russian threat has not been fully conveyed.
What’s the story?
What will it cost to keep the UK safe from a looming threat of war? According to Keir Starmer it’s 2.5% of GDP.
On Monday 2 June, Starmer announced plans to raise UK spending on defence to this figure by 2027, and to 3% by the end of the next parliament.
But less than 24 hours later, it was reported that NATO was due to demand it be raised to 3.5% by 2035, to cover the growing threat from Russia and warnings from Donald Trump that the US, the biggest contributor, may pull out of the international organisation.
These percentage increases may seem small, but with an economy worth around £2 trillion (despite the cost of living crisis and other financial struggles in recent years), in financial terms these add up to billions, at a time when the UK government is desperately trying to save cash.
Has Russia already declared war on the UK?
George Robertson, member of the House of Lords and a former Labour defence secretary and previously the Secretary General of NATO from 1999 to 2003, says Starmer’s speech on Monday was the beginning of conflict warnings for the people in the UK.
“The Prime Minister declared it when he made the announcement about the extra money for defence, he said a national conversation was absolutely imperative,” Robertson tells The News Agents.
“The government needs to engage with the people about what the security needs are for the country.”
He says the government, and the population of the UK, needs to be prepared for situations such as the power outages in Portugal and Spain in early 2025 – despite there being no solid evidence these were caused by cyber attacks.
He adds that British people must “make a decision” about the importance of increasing defence spending, comparing the country today to that of Ukraine before Russia’s 2022 invasion.
”Three and a half years ago the people in eastern Ukraine were walking their streets, as you and I would do in London, unconcerned,” Robertson says.
“They were going about their business, ordinary people in ordinary streets, doing ordinary things, and then suddenly they're invaded by Russia and brutalised in the process.”
He says this is now the “realities” of not only Ukraine, but of modern Europe as well, claiming Russia’s attacks on undersea cables in recent years can be considered a declaration of war.
“It’s also involved in disinformation, involved in targeted assassinations, and our critical national infrastructure is on a knife edge.”
He adds that the government’s defence spending review is to prepare the UK for threats coming in the future, not that exist today.
“We need to get ready for it, we need to prepare for it, and we need to prepare our armed forces for it,” he says.
“It has to be an endeavour for the whole of society, not simply something contracted out to people in uniform.
“Every citizen needs to know what their job is, what their responsibility is, in the protection of our critical national infrastructure.”
What’s The News Agents’ take?
But while Robertson’s words might strike fear into the hearts of some, Emily Maitlis also describes Keir Starmer’s speech this week as “quietly terrifying” – due to the connotations of his new defence policy and insistence on the need to secure the country with new nuclear deterrents.
Lewis Goodall says the biggest task now is to convince the public of the importance of this, but says the Labour government will need to work much harder to achieve this.
“You've basically got to convince the public that genuine sacrifice has to be made for good reason,” he says.
“I don't think that politicians so far have been willing to actually make that argument comprehensively, maybe that will change, but right now, you've really got to change public sentiment if you are going to have that transformation in public spending.”
The reported 3.5% demand by NATO is expected to be called for at the upcoming NATO meeting at The Hague towards the end of June 2025.
“We need to think really seriously about Russia, about Putin, about what's happening in Ukraine, and about whether we would be able to defend ourselves if push came to shove and that war escalated and grew towards other parts of Europe,” adds Emily.
But she asks whether even this will be enough to make Donald Trump happy, who has repeatedly called on NATO members and the EU to up their spending to match US contributions to global security.
“Trump is not a big believer in the EU, he's not a big believer in American interventionism in any sense, he doesn't really respect international bodies,” Lewis says.
“We shouldn’t try to appease the man who's famously capricious, who changes his mind on tariffs from one minute to the next, who changes rates, who changes dates, who changes countries, and think: 'Oh, we've just got to get to a place where he's happy'. He will never be happy.”
He adds the only possible way the UK can reach the target of 3.5% will be to raise taxes or borrow more money – which Labour has been adamant it will not do since before its win in the 2024 general election.
“The fiscal rules would have to change, even if we never get there. If Starmer signs up to it at the end of the month that does have big implications, even for the coming years, because you have to show direction of travel,” he says.
“Rachel Reeves will have to factor that into her spending calculations and spending forecasts in the years ahead.
“So even if we never get there, it puts even more pressure on Reeves in the immediate years, never mind getting up to 2035.”