Does Tony Blair still think he's Prime Minister?

What’s the story?

Tony Blair has, once again, offered instructions on how the UK should conduct itself.

In a new paper published by The Blair Institute, he says the UK should rejoin the European Union, if it promises to "reform" and become a "genuine global power".

Some believe Blair has piped up now because of Andy Burnham's criticism of "40 years of neoliberalism" and its failures, lumping Blair in with failed Tory leaders who governed during that period.

Blair says reuniting with Europe should be a "cornerstone" of Labour's 10-year plan.

"You always think, is Tony Blair the outrider for what the government wants when he does a paper like this," Jon Sopel says.

"Or is he a bloody irritant coming up with something that takes the party in a direction it doesn't want to go, just on the eve of its party conference?"

Emily Maitlis says it is unclear if Blair is racing ahead to where Andy Burnham wants to take Labour, or whether he is still trying to steer the party to a place he feels is appropriate.

Does Blair like Burnham more than he liked Starmer?

Respected by some, loathed by others, Tony Blair is a divisive but influential name in the Labour movement.

But with Burnham making his attacks on neoliberalism so soon after entering Downing Street, did he set himself up on the same troubled path as his predecessor?

"We know that the relationship with Keir Starmer was, frankly, not a good one. It was pretty crap. Keir found Tony Blair overpowering," Maitlis says.

"Blair still feels like this very dominant figure, and arguably the person who has spent the last 20 years out of office thinking about the really big thoughts on growth, on technology, AI, the NHS.

"He's been thinking about what it takes to power this country into a place where it is workable again, and where politics is workable again."

The difference this time around, The News Agents say, is the appointment of James Purnell as Burnham's chief of staff. Purnell served as the pensions minister under Blair, and who Maitlis describes as "still very close to Tony Blair", and a "helpful route" between the two.

But that route remains uncharted.

"Burnham and Blair have not met. I have asked if there were phone calls. We do not think they've even had phone calls," Maitlis adds.

"It was only this year that Andy Burnham was talking about how sometime in the future he would love the UK to be part of the EU again.”

This goes against the promises made by Keir Starmer in Labour’s 2024 election manifesto, which promised the UK will be "confident in our status outside of the EU, but a leading nation in Europe once again, with an improved and ambitious relationship with our European partners".

In May 2026, Burnham said there was a “long term case” for the UK rejoining the EU.

"Blair is now laying out this blueprint, essentially to – in his words – abandon Labour's red lines on further integration with Brussels."

Don't mention the B word

That brings us to the small issue of Brexit, and the "red lines" set by Theresa May, and followed by successive leaders that there would be no freedom of movement, no customs union and no single market.

If we're respecting the Brexit vote, then those three lines have got to remain in place. But there is this opening of the cracks now, this wriggle room of asking if we have to stand by those red lines, and what happens if we don't.

Jon says he has been told Downing Street has "reacted positively" to the paper published by the Blair Institute. The source for that? The Blair Institute.

The timing of the paper's publication is curious too – just days before the 2026 Labour conference, putting the question of the UK's relationship with Europe on people's minds, when Burnham and his party will have other things they wish to present and discuss.

"This opens the door for Reform and the Tories to say that Labour are getting ready to take the UK back into the European Union because Tony Blair has given a nod and a wink," Jon says.

Is Tony Blair's plan what the UK needs for growth?

Maitlis believes what Blair has suggested is a "circuit break" from a cycle of stagnation, and reuniting with the UK's biggest trading partner could well be the answer to the country's decline over the past decade.

"My kids are in their early 20s now, have grown up in a country where there has frankly been no growth," she says.

"They don't remember a time when they would look up and they would see the urgency of production or the sense of things happening around them because we haven't really had that in this country for almost 20 years.

"If you don't have growth, then people's wages stagnate and they start thinking that the whole system is broken, that the government isn't working for them, and they look for something else."

Jon says the problem with that is that while public opinion is generally united in thinking Brexit has been a "frigging disaster", no one wants to reopen the debate about Britain's place in the EU.

The British people, frankly, are tired.

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