Does Trump want to end the Ukraine war – or does he just want a Nobel Prize?
Donald Trump promised to end the Ukraine war in 24 hours. Now he’s in power, how – and why – will he be working to secure peace with Russia?
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In brief…
- Donald Trump has said that Russia can agree to a peace deal with Ukraine the easy, or hard way, but the Kremlin appears unphased by his threat of even more sanctions.
- The News Agents believe Trump admires Vladimir Putin, and his invasion, for its show of strength, but say he will push for peace with economic threats rather than taking a moral ground on the invasion.
- They believe his ultimate goal is to secure a Nobel Peace Prize, to bring him in line with long term adversary, Barack Obama.
What’s the story?
In 2024 Donald Trump promised if he became president, he could end the Ukraine war in 24 hours.
Of course, he didn't specify which 24 hours this would be, but after a week in power, it has yet to be achieved.
His advisors have now said that a peace deal with Vladimir Putin remains "months away".
Trump, meanwhile, has been issuing threats on social media, saying that Russia must make a deal the easy or hard way, and threatening the country with sanctions.
Emily Maitlis says he appears "almost oblivious" to the fact that Russia has been under severe economic sanctions since it first invaded Ukraine in 2022, and a Kremlin spokesperson has said it is still waiting to hear anything new from President Trump.
As the war approaches its third year, there's no sign that sanctions have had any impact on Russia.
Donald Trump has said he believes Putin is "destroying" Russia by not making a deal.
Lewis Goodall believes the idea that Russia, and its leadership, will simply accept a deal brokered by Trump is a "manufactured reality".
"This all relies on Putin to wish to make a deal, and as far as we know right now, he's not willing," he says.
Lewis adds that the only deal Russia is likely to take is one that is disadvantageous to Ukraine, and one that makes it little more than a "Russia puppet state".
How is Trump approaching the situation in Ukraine?
While previous attempts to broker a deal with Putin to end the war have focused on its actions inside Ukraine, Donald Trump is instead focusing on the resulting situation over the invasion in Russia instead.
"With Trump, everything comes down to economics. He's not going to pass moral judgment on Putin," says Emily.
"He's just going to say, this is down to you, whether you want to see your country collapse or not."
Lewis says the Trump we see now preparing to tackle Russia is far less "isolationist" than the one the world experienced during his first term in The White House, this time around being more "domestically emboldened and confident" due to the scope of his 2024 election win.
"Now he's more expansionist, wanting America to be more geopolitically dominant – much more like himself," Lewis says.
"That does potentially change the geopolitical game in quite a significant way."
And this approach has already yielded visible results.
"We've already seen the muscle that he can flex, in terms of what has happened with this embryonic ceasefire we've got in Gaza and the release of the first hostages," says Jon Sopel.
"Donald Trump did play a big role in that – even though it was the same deal that Joe Biden had put on the table, kind of six months earlier."
Ultimately, The News Agents believe Trump respects both Putin and his invasion of Ukraine – because the two men share the same approach to their leaderships.
"I think Trump respects Putin for wanting to take back Ukraine. His language is one of strength.," says Emily.
She says there are direct parallels between Putin's invasion of Ukraine and Trump's talk about Greenland, Panama and Canada.
"We don't know what Trump will do with all these threats, but we do know he's not castigating Putin for his sense of aggression. No, he just thinks he is just not doing it well enough, cleverly, because it's hurting his economy."
Why does Trump want to end the war in Ukraine?
The answer to this, The News Agents say, is simple: He wants a Nobel Peace Prize, and his mind is set firmly on his own legacy in his second run at the presidency.
"This is a man who strives off enemies. He thrives off having someone to try and beat and to win against," says Lewis.
"He is looking around the world and thinking about his legacy and what's his next challenge? What is his next fight?
His desire for that Nobel Prize also, they add, does not come from a desire to achieve global peace – it's simply because Barack Obama has one.
Obama was a 2009 recipient, in recognition of his "extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples".
"Trump feels very happy with what's happened in Gaza, and if he was able to pull off a peace deal in Ukraine, which leads to the guns going silent, he thinks his chances are that much greater of winning one."