Election night 2024: The Early Bird Special - By Emily Maitlis
Ok, it’s bang on 10pm and you’ve just recovered from the Exit Poll. Now you’re wondering what to stay up for and when to go to bed. Here is a very rough guide of what the first hour should hold if you’re watching or listening to the coverage overnight.
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The first big race of the night is not between Labour and the Conservatives. It’s between Newcastle and Sunderland, the fastest counters once the polls shut to bring in the first results.
For years, Sunderland had the edge. But they’ve been overtaken in recent times by Newcastle. Last time around, they brought results in between 11:00 and 11:30pm.
This time around, some of the seat boundaries have changed. The vote will be coming in from different places, which might affect the timing of the eventual result.
Newcastle council is even warning it might not get the votes counted in 2024 until after 1am. Nevertheless, here’s what to look out for when they do.
The three Newcastle seats are all safe Labour seats - Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend has a majority of nearly 18,000.
This new seat has the same name but different boundaries. It has a larger working class population, and a lower graduate and ethnic minority population.
Significantly, the Brexit Leave vote in this area would be far higher than in the old seat.
The sitting MP has been Mary Glindon since 2010 and she’s highly likely to win again. But look to see if Reform UK makes inroads here. (you probably won’t miss the Reform candidate on the stage with her bright pink hair). In 2019, the Brexit Party picked up 5,000 votes here.
Newcastle upon Tyne North is also a safe Labour seat. Catherine McKinnnell, a Labour shadow schools minister, has been the MP here since 2010.
Again in this seat, the name hasn’t changed but the boundaries have. The new seat is much younger with a larger university graduate population. The Remain vote here was also far higher, making it almost the opposite of Newcastle East and West.
Newcastle Central has the shadow minister for Science, Chi Onwurah. She has a majority of more than 12,000 and is expected to win again easily. It’s been a strong Labour seat since – wait for it – 1945, turning Conservative just once in 1983.
This time, as well as Conservatives and Lib Dem opponents, Onwurah is also facing former journalist Yvonne Ridley. She is standing for the Galloway Respect party, is a fervent critic of Zionism and the Gaza war, and has a large profile in parts of the Muslim world. Watch to see if this eats into the Labour vote at all in this metropolitan seat.
Now to Sunderland Central, which may be the first result we hear. There’s been no boundary change at all so the timing should be easier to predict.
Here, the Labout MP Julie Elliott, who is sitting on a modest majority of 3,000, is retiring. This opens up a safe seat for NHS manager Lewis Atkinson.
Reform UK are predicted to make gains which could land them in second place here - they have a local - Chris Eynon standing.
The population is majority working class and the leave vote here was 60%. Indeed, on the night of Brexit, it was one of the early signs that Leave was putting in a strong performance.
Houghton and Sunderland South is the seat of Bridget Phillipson, shadow education secretary. The Conservatives’ candidate here is a local councillor Chris Burnicle. And once again, Reform are hoping to pick up where the Brexit Party vote left off. They’re represented here by a mental health nurse who’s called Labour policies ‘a disease of our area’.
2019 was the first time Phillipson didn’t take over 50 per cent of the vote here. Indeed, it was an 11 per cent swing to Conservatives last time around.
So look out to see if Labour is back on firmer ground this time round - which we will see from swing and the height of the red column on the bar chart, which in normal times would dwarf all the other parties.
Last of this group is Washington and Sunderland West. Sharon Hodgson has been an MP here since 2005. She is now Keir Starmer’s parliamentary private secretary.
A former Tory councillor has defected to Reform and is standing for that party now. And the Conservative candidate is forensic psychologist and former NHS nurse Shaun Parsons. Once again, the Leave vote here was way above the average at 63 percent.
While we are not expecting anyone but Labour to win all six of these usually safe Labour seats, it’s worth looking at the direction of travel of the other parties here. Particularly the battle for second place between Conservatives and Reform in these high Leave voting areas eight years on from the Brexit referendum.