Could Elon Musk’s rift with Nigel Farage benefit Reform UK?

Read time: 3 minutes

In brief:

• Elon Musk publicly withdrew support for Nigel Farage and Reform UK, stating Farage "doesn't have what it takes" to lead - this came shortly after Farage refused to back Musk's calls to free Tommy Robinson from prison
• The fallout occurred amid Musk's criticism of the UK government's handling of grooming gangs in Oldham, with tensions escalating when Musk began advocating for Robinson's release from prison for contempt of court
• While this snub could cost Reform UK a rumoured $100 million Musk donation, The News Agents say it may actually benefit Farage by making him appear more moderate to mainstream voters through his distancing from Robinson

What’s the story?

After weeks of speculation that Elon Musk would give a sizable donation to Reform UK, the relationship between the tech entrepreneur and the party leader has come crashing down.

Elon Musk wrote on X that Nigel Farage doesn’t “have what it takes” to lead Reform and that the party needs a new leader.

Farage was clearly blindsided by the move, saying the multi-billionaire's tweet was a “surprise”. Just a day earlier, he gave a speech in Chelmsford calling Musk a “hero”.

For weeks Musk has been relentlessly criticising the UK government’s response to grooming gangs on X, after the Home Office rejected holding a new public enquiry into child sex exploitation on Oldham.

Jess Phillips, Secretary of State for Safeguarding and Violence Against Women and Girls, said Oldham council should launch its own local enquiry. The local authority called for a government-led one.

While Farage defended Musk’s calls for a public enquiry, the Clacton MP couldn’t get on board when Musk began calling for far-right protester Tommy Robinson, real name Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, to be freed from prison.

“Why is Tommy Robinson in a solitary confinement prison for telling the truth?” Musk posted.

“He should be freed and those who covered up this travesty should take his place in that cell.”

Yaxley-Lennon is currently in prison for contempt of court in a case unrelated to the grooming gangs scandal.

“[Musk] sees Robinson as one of these people that fought against the grooming gangs. But of course the truth is Tommy Robinson is in prison, not for that, but for contempt of court for the third occasion,” Farage told GB News.

“Robinson has been to prison many, many times for many, many things. Mortgage fraud, passport problems, you name it. He’s got his own campaign. We are a political party aiming to win the next general election. He’s not what we need”.

Farage has always distanced himself and his political parties from Yaxley-Lennon, and he wasn’t about to budge now, even if it put a potential huge political donation from his new friend at risk.

When the BBC asked the Reform leader if he would be willing to tell Musk he was wrong on this, Farage said “real friends” often agree to disagree.

“The fact that he supports me politically and supports Reform doesn't mean I have to agree with every single statement he makes on X.”

It was a mere few hours later that Musk cut on the cord on his supposed “real friend”, dropping support for Farage with one single X post.

"My view remains that Tommy Robinson is not right for Reform and I never sell out my principles," the Reform UK leader said after Musk’s shock-tweet.

What's The News Agents’ take?

Nigel Farage’s snub from Elon Musk was “humiliating in all sorts of ways,” says Lewis Goodall.

The two right-wingers had met at Mar-a-Lago three weeks ago, and only hours before the unexpected X post Farage was telling the BBC that he would meet Musk for a conversation at President Trump’s inauguration later this month.

But, Lewis says, Farage could use this to “make the best of a bad situation”.

“Farage’s tweet is very astute”, he says.

“In suggesting that the dividing line between them is Tommy Robinson, what Musk is doing is making Farage look centrist, or making him look more mainstream.”

This is useful for the Clacton MP who has always had a “ceiling” in terms of public support in elections, with some voters who may like him stopping short of voting for him due to concerns that he is too extreme.

“What is the one thing that would cement that impression in their minds? If there was any sense whatsoever that Farage was making an alliance with Tommy Robinson.”

If Farage is serious about building a much bigger coalition of more moderate right-wing voters, then “he had no choice” but to distance himself from Robinson.

However, this means Reform might have lost a rumoured $100 million donation to the party and as Emily Maitlis says, “Farage would still very much like the money.”

But there’s no saying that he won’t still get it. Musk has been known to change his mind before - this is the man who once famously didn’t see eye to eye with Donald Trump and went on to be his biggest backer.

“God knows what he's thinking. He might donate it tomorrow, right?”

Either way, Lewis says the association with Tommy Robinson “diminishes Musk considerably”.

“His influence in British politics was partly his reach on Twitter, but it was also partly arising from the sense that he had backed a horse, Farage, and they were going to make an alliance, much as he had done with Trump.

“If in fact, his horse is Robinson, that forces all of the people who have been praising Musk to over the past few weeks, political figures, the right wing press, GB News, to choose.

“And by and large, particularly because he's chosen this line in the sand, they will choose Farage.”

Listen to the latest episode of The News Agents.