Final polls predict 'worst ever' election result for Tories
The final polls before the 2024 reveal a huge majority for Labour, and success for the Lib Dems, while the former government is set for spectacular losses.
In brief...
- The final polls predict the Conservatives will lose 239 seats, resulting in their worst ever result, winning only 126 seats.
- Labour is predicted to gain 200 seats, securing a majority of 210 with a total of 430 constituencies.
- The Liberal Democrats are expected to take 52 seats, and Nigel Farage is predicted to win his first seat in the House of Commons.
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The final polls ahead of the General Election predicts the Conservatives to lose 239 seats, the party's worst ever result.
Polling by More In Common, the official polling partner of The News Agents, predicts Labour to gain 200 seats across the UK, and emerge from the election with a majority of 210, winning in a total of 430 constituencies.
It has also predicted a strong night for the Liberal Democrats, and for Nigel Farage to win his first ever seat as an MP.
What does the final poll reveal?
Following a troubled election campaign, the Conservatives are set to win 126 seats, a sizable drop from the 365 it claimed in 2019, when the party achieved its biggest proportion since 1987.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has faced backlash for leaving D-Day celebrations in Normandy early, and the party at large has been criticised for repeating claims about a supposed £2,000 tax rise by the Labour Party if is elected into power.
The Lib Dems are predicted to take 52 seats in the House of Commons, which returns the party to levels not reached since before it entered a coalition government with the Tories following the 2010 election.
The Scottish National Party is set for "collapse" with a prediction of just 16 seats, a number Labour is expected to double.
Reform UK are expected to claim two seats, as is Plaid Cymru, while the Green Party is set to win just one.
Jeremy Corbyn is set to return to Parliament as an independent MP, following his expulsion from the Labour Party earlier this year.
What do the experts say?
Luke Tryl of More In Common tells The News Agents he is "as confident as you can be" with the final poll, adding that what they've predicted is at the "upper end" for the Tories final tally.
Jon Sopel says their result is looking to land somewhere between "annihilation and humiliation".
"With hours to go before polls opening our latest MRP suggests the Conservative Party are heading for the worst result in their history, while Labour look set to achieve a record breaking majority of their own," says Tryl.
"But it would be a mistake to assume that tomorrow doesn’t matter. With over a hundred seats still in the balance, the size of Labour’s victory, the extent to which the Conservatives are able to form a viable opposition, as well as the challenge they face from the Liberal Democrats, along with how many Green and Reform UK MPs join the House of Commons will all be determined by where those still undecided voters ultimately cast their ballot."
Who's set to lose their seat?
A poor election result for the Tories means a number of prominent politicians could find themselves without a seat, with Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps, Alex Chalk, David Davies, Victoria Prentis and Johnny Mercer most likely to lose their spot.
It could also be a bad night for Penny Mordaunt, Lucy Frazer, Mark Harper, Michelle Donelan, Richard Holden and Esther McVey, whose constituencies are currently too close to call.
There are, however, 99 marginal seats where the Conservatives have a lead of just 5%, which could swing either way. If all are lost, the former government would be left with as few as 78 seats in the House of Commons.