How close is America to entering war with Iran?
As fighting escalates between Israel and Iran and the death toll rises, tensions between Iran and the United States intensify. How likely is it that Donald Trump will get the US involved in a war in the Middle East?
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In brief:
- Israel launched a major attack on Iran's nuclear and military facilities, killing Iranian generals and nuclear scientists, which prompted Iran to retaliate with missile strikes on Israeli cities, resulting in over 200 Iranian deaths and 24 Israeli deaths.
- Iran claims the US supported Israel's attack and has threatened retaliation against America, while Trump denies involvement but warned of overwhelming military response if the US is targeted, potentially pulling America into a Middle East war.
- The News Agents say that Israel has demonstrated superior military capabilities by achieving air dominance over Iran in 48 hours and weakening Iranian proxies, leaving Iran with limited options to either continue fighting from a position of weakness or negotiate a deal.
What’s the story?
Donald Trump insists America had "nothing to do" with Israel's devastating assault on Iran on Friday (13 June) - but that might not stop them from being pulled into the war in the Middle East.
The surprise attack saw Israel strike Iran’s nuclear and military facilities, also killing several Iranian generals and nuclear scientists.
Iran retaliated to the attack by firing hundreds of missiles at Israeli cities, whilst most were intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome Defense System, some penetrated, hitting and destroying residential buildings.
As fighting between the Middle Eastern neighbours continues, Iran’s health ministry reports that over 200 people have been killed since the attacks started. 24 people have been killed in Israel.
“The rationale Israel's given is, ‘Iran’s always been an existential threat. We think they're getting to a place where they're about to make a bomb. Let's just stop them now, while we can’,” Emily Maitlis explains on The News Agents.
Trump might deny the US being involved in Israel’s attack on Tehran but Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says Iran has “solid evidence” that the US didn’t just know about Israel’s attack, but provided support for it .
Iran has now vowed to retaliate against the US.
And Donald Trump has responded to Iran’s threat of retaliation with one of his own, saying; “If we are attacked in any way, shape, or form by Iran, the full strength and might of the U.S. Armed Forces will come down on you at levels never seen before.”
How close is America to entering war with Iran?
While the US position is that it had no involvement in Israel’s attack, Trump himself has confirmed that Israel told the White House of its plans beforehand - hardly surprising, given that the US evacuated embassy staff one day before Israel hit Tehran.
“I think Israel saw a bat signal from Trump saying, ‘well, I'm not for it, but I'm not going to stop you. I'm going to quietly turn a blind eye’,” Emily Maitlis says.
The question about US involvement ultimately comes down to what Iran does next, Lewis says.
He says if the Iranian regime feels like a “weak animal, trapped in a corner of a room” it could do something potentially “stupid or reckless” like attacking American military assets or commercial assets in the region.
Emily adds that if American ships or troops were targeted in any way, Trump would feel he was being pulled into a war - and judging by his Truth Social post, would respond.
“Which would be ironic, because he's the man who always tells us that no wars would happen on his watch, and right now, the world has rarely felt a more dangerous place” Emily says.
While Donald Trump has threatened a harsh retaliation if America is targeted, he has also seemingly attempted to diffuse the fighting, with reports suggesting that Trump told Netanyahu that it was “not a good idea” to kill Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Trying to work out where Trump’s head is at is a “mugs game” Emily says,
She adds that Trump carries both ‘if we need to, we'll unleash the forces of hell’ - and also - ‘we don't want to get involved in foreign wars’ at the same time.
What’s The News Agents’ take?
The timing of Israel’s attack appears calculated - with Donald Trump, who is untrusting of Iran, in power, and Israel’s recent advances in weakening Iranian proxies.
“Netanyahu has looked across at Trump and said, ‘here's a guy who doesn't really like or trust Iran’,” Emily says.
She adds that Netanyahu will be looking at its own advances in recent years - including the pager attack which eliminated Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon, destroying much of Hamas, and the fall of Bashar Al Assad in Syria - and thinking, “‘maybe this is the next logical step’.”
“Israel is thinking, ‘You know what? We don't care. Everyone hates us now - we might as well go and get the job done’.”
Lewis says Israel has demonstrated “extraordinary” military capabilities with the recent strikes.
“Not only the intelligence, which has allowed them to target so precisely, so many senior members of Iran's Revolutionary Guard and its government, but to achieve such air superiority and military superiority, against an opponent that was always considered to be at least Israel's equal, speaks to Iran's weakness.”
“They've achieved control of Iran's skies in 48 hours - a feat that still eludes Russia in Ukraine after three and a half years of war there,” Lewis adds.
“This is Israel now establishing itself as the preeminent, preeminent military power in the Middle East.”
Lewis adds that in such a position of weakness, Iran is left with two options - one is to fight on.
“But as we're seeing at the moment, they're losing,” Lewis says.
“That's not to say that that will continue. They may have something else up their sleeve.
“But Netanyahu has certainly chosen his moment well, in the sense that the Iranian regime is weak. It's weaker than it's been for years. Its proxies, in the form of Hezbollah and Hamas are weak, and the Houthis are as well. And so therefore they're coming at this at a moment of frailty.”
The other option is to make a deal.
“Question is, is whether Netanyahu, as I say, wants a deal, and what sort of deal he might be willing to accept.”