How has Trump bungled his war in Iran so badly?
Donald Trump made a “genocidal threat” against Iran on Tuesday, but wanted to run joint tolls with the same people on Wednesday as he celebrated a ceasefire. He thinks he’s done great, but has he really, really messed up on this one?
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What’s the story?
Less than 24 hours after claiming "a whole civilisation will die tonight," Donald Trump has accepted a 10-point peace plan, drawn up by Iran, which leaves the US with next-to-nothing after a five-week war.
Iran's terms include all US troops leaving the Middle East, continuing to enrich Uranium, lifting of all sanctions, compensation for the US and Israel's strikes and continued control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump has claimed this is a "complete victory" for the US.
“Most of these things would have been off the table 40 days ago,” says Lewis Goodall.
“That is the position Trump has got himself to, by making a genocidal threat for the whole of the world to see against an entire civilisation.”
When Trump first began striking Iran alongside Israel, on 28 February 2026, he outlined several goals from the invasion of Iran. These included ending its enrichment of uranium, regime change, curbing its ballistic missile program.
“Iran hasn't agreed to any of that,” Lewis adds.
A two-week ceasefire has been agreed between the US and Iran, while Israel continues bombing Lebanon, where more than 1,500 people have been killed since February 2026.
Is Iran now stronger than it was before the US and Israel began bombing?
When strikes against Iran first began, it was already at the negotiating table, speaking with the US and Israel about its nuclear capabilities and its leadership.
“Iran wanted a deal. They were at the table, for a deal that, by all accounts, was largely on US terms with the Strait open to international shipping,” Lewis says.
“It was probably at its weakest for at least a decade,” Lewis says.
“Its proxies, thanks to American and Israeli military action, had been degraded across the region, and its nuclear program, by America's own estimation, had either been obliterated or – more realistically – slowed down substantially.”
Today, the Strait is being “regulated and controlled” by Iran, which is charging for its use. The Ayatollah is gone, but only replaced by his son – there is no regime change.
Before US intervention, Lewis adds, there were people in the streets protesting against the Islamic Regime. Now, young people are out in force surrounding power-plants and bridges to protect them from US strikes.
On top of all this, the relationship between the US and Europe has been fractured, potentially irrevocably, while Gulf allies of America no longer want to be under the US security umbrella.
“This was a war of choice, and has led to a position where Iran is stronger,” Lewis says.
MAGA is celebrating – but is anyone fooled?
The ceasefire and peace deal have been celebrated by members of his MAGA administration, but condemned by European leaders, who have said explicitly that things have been made worse by the war in Iran.
But still, people such as Pete Hegseth and JD Vance congratulate Trump on what he has apparently achieved.
“We're looking at an absolute mess, and America is trying to salvage something from it,” says Emily Maitlis.
“But the big question here is still about Trump, his sanity, and his credibility.
“The problem has gone for now, but it has properly opened up a debate about what on earth they're going to do with the guy at the centre.”
The US Democratic Party has said Trump is mentally unstable and unfit for office, but Jon Sopel says it needs high level Republicans to say the same, for Congress to approve any action against the President.
“For all the questions rightly raised about the mental state of Donald Trump, we are a long way from anything like that happening,” Jon says.
Has Trump bungled America’s remaining respect as well?
Just 24 hours after threatening genocide against an entire civilisation, Trump is now suggesting the US runs jointly operated tolls in the Strait of Hormuz with the same people he considered eradicating.
Lewis says Trump’s actions since 28 February have shown the world the “limits of American power”, leaving it deeply weakened.
“Donald Trump often tries to set himself up as a Roman Emperor,” he adds.
“But what this crisis – this war of choice – has shown, he's far more like the Wizard of Oz, there is less to him that meets the eye.
“Trump is acting more erratically, more insanely than even he ever has before. The guy's lost it.”