Why Trump's Iran war ceasefire fell apart so fast
The cracks are already showing in Trump’s so-called ceasefire in Iran, with Israel killing hundreds in strikes on southern Lebanon. Will peace talks go ahead, and does Israel risk fresh alienation with its ongoing attacks?
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In brief…
- Israel killed a reported 203 people in Lebanon on the same day Donald Trump announced a sudden ceasefire in the US and Israel war against Iran – suggesting the rush had meant not everyone involved was aware of the full details of a peace plan.
- The News Agents say Israel’s ongoing assault against Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon risks alienating more people to its cause, despite having legitimate concerns over future terror attacks from the Iranian proxy group.
- The Trump administration said Iran was “on its knees” for a ceasefire, but Emily, Jon and Lewis say it’s more likely Trump was “desperate” for a deal.
What’s the story?
On the same day Donald Trump announced, and celebrated, a ceasefire with Iran, Israel – its partner in war against the nation – killed 203 people in Lebanon, according to local officials.
Iran's deputy foreign minister Saeed Khatibzadeh has described the strikes – reportedly 100 in just 10 minutes – as a "massacre", and a "grave violation" of the ceasefire deal. An Israel spokesperson told Lewis Goodall on LBC that it would never bring Lebanon into any ceasefire deal.
JD Vance has described Israel's attacks as "checking themselves in" to set America up for "success".
"Israel believes – or claims – it is still targeting Hezbollah militants in Lebanon," says Emily Maitlis.
"The trouble is that when you kill 200 people in one strike, when you maim or injure 800 people in one day's attacks, that is clearly not all going to be Hezbollah.
"That is going to include many, many civilians."
Did the US rush into this ceasefire?
Pete Hegseth, Trump's secretary of defence (or 'war' if you prefer), claimed Iran was "begging" for this ceasefire.
But with the Strait of Hormuz closed again, and it now seeming unlikely Iranian delegates will attend peace talks, many now believe it's America that was desperate for an off-ramp.
"This was cobbled together so fast after Donald Trump had promised to wipe out a civilization in one day," says Jon Sopel.
"You had America rushing to say it would sign this ceasefire, and Iran being much more guarded."
"There is no way that we are back to normal, or that the ceasefire is in any way being carried out in the way that I think America hoped and prayed for."
Pakistan became an unlikely participant in the process when it offered to host peace talks, but Emily says there is now credible suggestion that this was an idea pitched by Trump's team.
"This happened so quickly and so rapidly that no one was actually completely across the particulars," says Lewis Goodall.
Will planned peace talks go ahead?
There are now suggestions that Iranian delegates will not be travelling to Iran this week for talks with the US and Israel, with confirmations made on social media now deleted from official Iranian accounts.
But even if they did, would they be met with professionals?
“It's Steve Witkoff, who's a property billionaire who turned up in Russia to negotiate with Putin without any translators, and Jared Kushner,” says Jon.
“The key negotiators for American diplomacy right now are property developers, have no experience of diplomacy, and no experience of negotiation - and the Iranians are very difficult to negotiate with.“
Why Israel continues bombing South Lebanon
Trump's press secretary Karoline Leavitt has said that Lebanon is "not part of the ceasefire" – and footage of the devastation which has emerged since the ceasefire was announced, confirms this.
"What Israel is trying to do, essentially, is annex the south from the north to create an enclave that it looks like they're going to beat the shit out of," says Emily.
Lewis says Benjamin Netanyahu sees valid reasons to attempt to keep conflict going as long as possible.
Israel has wanted this war, supported by the US, for many years, and Netanyahu has “every incentive” to keep fighting, Lewis adds, in order to defer a general election in Israel and keep himself out of court on corruption charges, Lewis says.
"Hezbollah has been and continues to be a real threat to Israel," says Emily.
"So the idea that Israel thinks that it is fighting an existential enemy here is absolutely real."
She says the suggestion of annexing southern Lebanon is part of a potential plan to create a buffer zone around Israel’s borders to stop future attacks.
But this strategy now risks shifting hostility from the people of Lebanon from Hezbollah, to Israel itself.
"Once again, Israel starts from a position which I think is understandable, which is that it fears terrorists on its doorstep," Emily says.
"But it just escalates, involves so many civilians, and gets to absolutely disproportionate levels very quickly, to the point where there is very little sympathy left for the original goal."