How Trump revealed Iran holds all the cards in the war he started
Donald Trump says successful peace talks were held between the US, Israel and Iran. The only problem with his claim is that no one else seems to have any knowledge of them…
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What’s the story?
The good news? Donald Trump says, after successful talks with Iran about the “complete and total resolution of hostilities” in the Middle East, that the US will halt planned strikes on Iranian power plants.
The bad news? Iran says these talks never happened – and the US president is making it all up.
In a post on Truth Social Trump described the talks as “in-depth, detailed and constructive”, and promised they would continue through the week.
He says the talks took place on the weekend, during which time he was also posting messages on social media promising to “obliterate” Iran’s power infrastructure.
"We deny what US President Donald Trump said regarding negotiations taking place between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran," says Iran's foreign ministry in a statement.
"Donald Trump was breathing hell, fire and brimstone over Iran," says Jon Sopel.
"He was going to knock out every power station in Iran and plunge the country into darkness.
"But Iran didn't blink."
Instead, it threatened to target desalination plants across the Middle East – which Jon says likely led to Trump's sudden, and stark, change in tone from the president.
"We are now in this curious new world where we await verification from the Iranian regime to see whether the US president is telling the truth," says Emily Maitlis.
Why is Trump saying this?
Donald Trump has claimed, repeatedly, that America has won the Iran War, while flipping between demanding support from NATO members to claiming no support was needed.
Which is why his claims of successful peace talks seem so out of the blue.
"There are a lot of theories doing the rounds now, one is that Trump is trying to unilaterally declare peace, to drive the price of oil back down," says Emily.
She says this will allow him a bit of "thinking time" amidst calmer markets, but adds that he will most likely go back and "bomb the hell out of Iran anyway" when that comes to an end.
If this isn't the case, Emily continues, then perhaps he's just frightened.
"He suddenly realised that he doesn't hold the cards, that Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, that they are serious when they say they could literally hit every Gulf state desalination plant."
This, she says, would lead to every Gulf state placing blame on Trump and the US, and cause the dissolution of relationships between America and the Middle East.
"Forget truth being the first casualty in a war, this is all about stock market manipulation," says Jon.
"It feels like this is about the manipulation of the crude oil price, and you just wonder whether people are profiteering on this."
He says he hopes everything is as "face value" as Trump claims – but finds that difficult to believe.
"Trump says they've held really constructive talks, that we are on the edge of peace, that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, and we are all going to live happily ever after," Jon adds.
"But somehow, I'm cynical."
‘A guy in severe cognitive decline’
A call is also believed to have taken place between Trump and Keir Starmer on Sunday night, and there was no suggestion that there was any mention of peace talks during the conversation.
And is Donald Trump really someone who would keep his victories to himself?
"None of it is really making sense at this point," Emily says.
"That could be because, obviously, we are dealing with a guy who is in severe cognitive decline and doesn't really make sense from one moment to another."
Why lie?
Trump says talks took place. Iran says they did not.
On the one hand we have a possibly "deranged" president, on the other the Islamic Regime – so right now, it's hard to know who to believe.
"What we do know is that after almost a month of war in Iran, Trump wants out," says Emily.
"He's saying 'this is what I see now'."
This, she adds, could give Iran an "off ramp" if it's also ready to end the conflict.
But does it also show who's really in control of the war in Iran, this whole time?
"It gives the impression that the people who hold the Aces and the Kings are the Iranians," says Jon.
"All Donald Trump has is sevens, sixes and fives."