How Trump’s NATO threat could make all Putin’s dreams come true
Donald Trump has again stated his intention for the US to withdraw from NATO. If he lives up to his word, does this give Vladimir Putin and Russian forces free reign to push further into Europe?
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What’s the story?
Donald Trump is a man with a lot to say. Sometimes on social media, sometimes at a press conference, sometimes in an interview.
More often than not, it’s utter garbage.
But when Trump tells The Telegraph he is “strongly considering” pulling the US out of NATO, that’s easier to believe, because he has been angry with the alliance for a long time.
Initially angry that America was contributing so much more than other members towards Ukraine, and more recently furious that NATO members didn’t join his war in Iran, despite being founded on a basis of defending one another, not invading others.
In his rants, Trump has singled out the UK in particular, saying that he would “remember” what he sees as a betrayal from European countries.
“It turns out that Trump loves his vengeance served hot,” says Emily Maitlis.
“He is now saying pulling out of NATO is coming down the line.”
America leaving NATO will leave every member weaker, and more vulnerable with the support of a superpower. But there is one person who would be thrilled to see America leave its allies high and dry.
How does this benefit Putin?
Trump’s anger at NATO, and the position it finds itself in is “deeply embedded” in the Ukraine war, says Lewis Goodall.
NATO has expanded eastwards in recent decades, and Putin has seen this as an “encroachment” on Russia’s borders, including Volodymyr Zelensky’s goal of Ukraine also joining the alliance.
“The US is the linchpin of the Alliance. It provides the bulk of the military power. A US withdrawal would defang NATO. It would be a truly enormous moment in the history of post-war Europe,” Lewis says.
“There would then be a massive question mark as to whether Putin would choose to use that moment, when he knows that the Americans are not going to be there for us, to try to make an incursion on EU or NATO states along the Eastern frontier.”
Jon Sopel says Putin has just one ambition, to undermine the solidarity of the western alliance – but now he’s got Trump doing the job for him,
“If you're Vladimir Putin sitting in the Kremlin today, and you're seeing the price of Russian oil go up because of Donald Trump's war in Iran, then you're thinking; happy days,” Jon says.
“You're seeing Donald Trump saying, I'm going to bust up NATO? Even happier days.”
What Trump has set in motion with his newest comments about pulling the US from NATO is making every one of Putin’s dreams for Russia come true, Jon adds.
Is this really what Trump wants for his legacy as a ‘peacemaker’?
The News Agents don’t deal in conspiracy theories, but there was once a suggestion that Trump was a Russian agent because of all the concessions he would make towards Putin.
“I’m not going to go down a rabbit hole on the veracity of that, but a year ago Trump came into office and said he was going to end the Ukraine war on day one,” Emily says.
“He was going to be the peacemaker, the one who tells Putin to end his war with Ukraine.
“You look at where we are today and, arguably, Trump could not have done more to weaken the western hemisphere and embolden Putin.”
She questions whether this is a legacy Trump, a man obsessed with his own public opinion, would want to leave.
“He hasn't created peace, He has created war, and he's left all of us more vulnerable,” she adds.
“At the moment, Putin is on Ukraine's doorstep. He is on Finland's doorstep. He is on Poland and Estonia's doorstep.
“If Putin is then emboldened to take it to a place where it is him and China organising the world because America has just left the scene, that is not so great for everyone else.”
Jon says for America to withdraw, Trump would need to get it passed through Congress, even if it has done little to stand up to the MAGA president during his second term in the White House.
Lewis disagrees, and says he can achieve the same results doing far less.
“Trump doesn't need Congress because, ultimately, he can destroy NATO with a single sentence,” he says.
“If he just says that if a NATO state were to be invaded, he won’t be there – he'll have basically ended it.”
Trump is often criticised for his lack of consistency on official matters, flip-flopping between politician stances depending on who he last spoke to, but Emily says he remains firm on one issue – his hatred of NATO.
“‘America first' means sod the lot of you,” she says.
“We used to think the biggest problem with the US was chlorinated chicken. “Turns out, it's something bigger.”