If Boris Johnson backed Remain, would Britain still be in the EU?
How big was Boris Johnson’s influence on the outcome of the 2016 Brexit campaign? If he backed Remain instead, could it have tipped the scales - or was the result inevitable?
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In brief:
- Boris Johnson's decision to back the Brexit Leave campaign in 2016 was seen as a "bombshell" moment that shocked then-PM David Cameron, who tried extensively to persuade Johnson to support Remain.
- Johnson's motivation for backing Leave may have been primarily political ambition - specifically to prevent Michael Gove from becoming the Conservative leader of the Leave movement and to improve his own chances of becoming Prime Minister.
- Did the Brexit result reflect deeper societal unrest that would have happened regardless? Or could Johnson's influence have swayed the tight margin if he had backed Remain instead?
What's the story?
Since his time as Prime Minister Boris Johnson has become somewhat of a controversial political figure, after scandals in his tenure, most notably partygate, left some supporters turning on him.
So it’s easy to forget that back in 2016, Johnson was the relatively popular and well-liked outgoing Mayor of London.
He had influence and, much to the dismay of David Cameron, he backed the Leave campaign.
How big of an impact did Boris Johnson’s decision to back Leave in the 2016 Brexit referendum have? If he backed remain, would Britain still be in the EU today?
Why did Boris Johnson decide to back the leave campaign?
It was a “bombshell” moment when Johnson came out against the government of David Cameron, who supported Remain, and became the most notable backer of Brexit.
“David Cameron put enormous amounts of effort and political capital into trying to persuade him, including over – apparently – lots of games of tennis, which he says he let Johnson win, to back Remain, because they thought it would be so damaging for the Remain campaign if Johnson backed Leave, which, of course, he did,” Lewis Goodall says.
“Boris Johnson had a long pedigree as a Euro skeptic.
“But it was generally thought by David Cameron and Number 10 that although he would lean into Euro skepticism when it suited him, that he was a Remainer, that he didn't actually think we should leave the EU .”
Michael Gove, a prominent cabinet minister at the time, was the first to come out and back Leave. This move, Lewis says, “made Johnson suspicious” - and might have been the key moment in which he made up his own mind.
“The argument that Cameron makes is that he thinks Boris did it to stop Gove getting the Conservative crown. In other words, one or other of them would have gone on to lead the Conservative Party under Leave. And it would either have been Boris or it would have been Gove.”
It’s possible, then, that Boris Johnson backed the Leave campaign which ultimately contributed to Britain leaving the EU, for his own gain rather than for his political beliefs.
“Boris Johnson decided he wanted to support Brexit because it was best for Boris Johnson and his chances of becoming the next prime minister. And it worked,” Jon says.
If Boris Johnson never campaigned for Leave, would Britain still be in the EU?
There’s no doubt that Boris Johnson and Michael Gove were seminal figures in the Brexit campaign.
But Emily thinks there were bigger things at play that lead 52% of the population to vote in favour of Brexit.
“There was clearly unrest in this country, which you cannot bottle back up.
“Given everything we've now seen in Europe, given everything we've now seen in America, to suggest that the Brexit vote sort of hung on a Boris thread, I think is probably naive.”
But Jon’s not convinced, saying Johnson’s decision to back Brexit “probably did make the difference”.
“Johnson was this unique figure in British politics. He reached the parts of the British electorate that other politicians could not reach.”
Looking at the numbers, Lewis agrees that it’s very possible that Boris’ influence could have tipped the scales.
“The margin was 1.3 million votes. So you only need 650,000 votes to go the other way, to switch, and you've got a Remain result.
“So it doesn't seem incredible at all to believe that Johnson, who did become a salesman, he was the person who ended up leading it, could have swayed it.”