‘If Zack Polanski wins Starmer’s seat, everything changes for Andy Burnham’
The Green Party leader intends to stand for the Holborn and St Pancras seat vacated by Keir Starmer, but who’s got more to lose here – Zack Polanski, or Andy Burnham?
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What’s the story?
Zack Polanski is making moves.
The leader of the Green Party has said he intends to stand in Holborn and St Pancras in an upcoming by-election, triggered by the resignation of Keir Starmer.
Polanski told the Camden New Journal he is "excited by the prospect" of representing the London borough, but has not formally declared his candidacy. He is currently a member of the London Assembly.
“It seems to me that Zack Polanski didn't really have a choice,” says Emily Maitlis.
“If Polanski had refused to stand, without an extraordinarily good reason, then that would have been the end of him.
“I also think that if he stands and loses, then it is probably the end of him as the Green Party leader, because this is a seat that the Greens should be taking fairly comfortably on a good night.”
Luke Tryl of polling organisation More In Common tells The News Agents that Polanski standing is likely to "electrify" the race, and believes the by-election has "everything to play for", despite its history as a Labour stronghold.
Reform already bringing ugliness to a race they have no stake in
Reform UK placed fifth in Holborn and St Pancras in the 2024 general election, with its candidate winning just 2,371 votes. The party has so far struggled in election results across London and other more progressive parts of the UK, and there is little to suggest this will change in the upcoming by-election.
Camden's Labour council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali is the frontrunner to take Starmer's spot on the ballot. A child refugee from Somalia, Abdi-Wali has already been targeted by racist comments from Reform UK's Zia Yusuf on social media.
Yusuf implied her Somalian heritage and potential candidacy suggested something sinister.
“We used to call that a dogwhistle,” says Maitlis.
“But I honestly think you could take that to the nearest retirement home; they'd all hear that pretty darn loudly.”
She believes Abdi-Wali could be a genuine threat to Polanski in the race, as her refugee background, and commitment to public life may sit nicely with Holborn and St Pancras voters.
“He's probably done her an enormous favour,” says Lewis Goodall.
“I imagine there would have been a real scrap to get this safe seat. I would imagine that he's done her prospects no harm whatsoever with the local Labour Party.”
Who really holds the left-wing vote in the UK now?
The stakes in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election will not only be high for Polanski, but new PM Andy Burnham as well.
The result of a vote in this central London constituency will be a test of whether the former Greater Manchester mayor has managed to regain Labour's appeal with left-wing voters lost under Keir Starmer's leadership.
“If Polanski stands in this and loses, particularly if he loses badly, that's going to be pretty lethal for his authority within the Green Party,” says Lewis.
“If Polanski were to win, or come really close, then that would change the whole calculus of the Burnham government.”
He believes a Polanski win would be seen as a wider threat to the many Labour seats previously considered safe in London and the South of England, with Burnham's focus seemingly on the North of the country.
Polanski, The News Agents say, faces a much tougher challenge in running this election at this moment, with the ‘Burnham bounce’ in the polls seemingly having greatly diminished the Green’s position in the polls.
“Burnham will desperately want to win this, and the Labour Party will desperately want to win this,” says Lewis.
“Burnham has gained in the polls because he has united more of the left bloc, and if he can defeat Polanski here, that will basically probably hobble Polanski permanently,
“That would be an enormous advantage for Burnham going into any general election whenever it comes, because Polanski, for all of his problems, has been easily the most effective campaigner and leader that the Green Party has ever had.”
But Jon Sopel says Polanski had no choice but to stand – no matter how poor the polling or the political landscape.
“If Polanski had decided not to run, it would have been seen as cowardice or an admission that his leadership has got nowhere in the party,” Jon says.
“I think a lot of people wouldn't have thought of it in those particular terms. They'll have just thought: "Oh, he's an ambitious man who wants to get a London seat'."
The progressive London terrain may be comfortable for Zack Polanski – the timing is anything but.