‘I'm sure the people of Makerfield will be relieved when we bugger off’

What’s the story?

It's not just the future of Makerfield's parliamentary representation that's at stake in this week's by-election, it's Keir Starmer's future.

After two years in power, he faces a serious threat to his leadership from Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham who many – including members of his party and cabinet – sees as his imminent successor.

The stumbling block for Burnham, until now, is that without being an MP, he can't make his bid for Labour leadership, but all that could change when the votes are counted in Makerfield.

"Starmer knows that his fate is no longer his own," says Lewis Goodall.

"It isn't being decided in Evian, where he is at the G7 summit, and it won't be decided in Westminster."

He says the PM, who has said he hopes Burnham wins in Makerfield and urged his party to support his local election bid, is in "the most uncomfortable place for a political leader to be."

"I can't think of any by-election in my lifetime where so much has been riding on it," says Jon Sopel.

"Voters could be deciding who the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is, and we've never had a by-election of that importance before."

Despite this, Jon adds, both Burnham and Kenyon have done the "bare minimum" of public appearances, despite the huge national interest in the outcome of the by-election.

He describes Kenyon as not being "the sharpest tool in the box".

When Burnham has spoken to the press, questions have been focused on what he would do as Prime Minister, not what he hopes to do for Makerfield.

Polling suggests a narrow victory over Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon, whose electoral ambitions seem unhindered by offensive, misogynist comments posted on social media before entering politics.

Lewis says Makerfield is one of Reform UK's most sought-after seats. In 2024 Kenyon lost to Labour's Josh Simons, who stepped down earlier this year to allow Burnham to run.

‘Voters want real people as politicians – but it’s harder than we realise’

Luke Tryl of pollsters More in Common says even in the days before voting, there was conflict and indecision among Makerfield residents.

Tryl says there was hesitancy to vote Labour due to a widespread dislike of Keir Starmer, but also because of uncertainty of what might happen in the constituency if Andy Burnham's leadership bid is quick, and successful.

"I was talking to a former cabinet minister about just this recently," Tryl tells Maitlis.

"They said what a lot of people don't realise is that if your MP is the Prime Minister, actually you get a lot of attention, because no cabinet minister ignores a letter from the Prime Minister about something going wrong in their patch."

Voters also expressed concern about the actions of Reform UK supporters in Makerfield, where – like many parts of the country – they have seen protests against migration, whipped up by far-right activists on social media.

"There was hatred and a twisted look on these people's faces," says a local voter who witnessed a recent protest.

"But what broke my heart was kids were shouting this, and I thought, we are breeding hate."

Luke Tryl says there is a mixed response to Robert Kenyon, the Reform UK candidate, from female voters, with misogynist and anti-abortion comments exposed in the lead-up to the by-election. Some were appalled, others said they were brought up in a time where “women gave as good as they got”.

"The bigger criticism of Robert Kenyon was just people didn't think he was up to it," says Tryl.

"They'd seen him on Question Time. They worried that he wasn't able to articulate himself in a way that they wanted from their representative."

Maitlis says UK voters may have got themselves "in a knot" over what they want from their representatives today.

"We don't want professional politicians, we want anyone to be able to step up," she says.

"Of course, it is probably harder than we realise."

But can the polls be trusted, and will Reform continue its winning streak?

At one point in UK politics, a by-election fought between a career politician and a plumber with a dodgy internet history and questionable opinions on women would be an easy battle.

But with the rise of populist politics, and the passion stirred up by Reform UK among many people in the UK, the Makerfield race is a tough one to call.

"Over the past few days, Westminster consensus has moved to say Burnham's got this in the bag," Lewis says.

"But I don't get that sense of confidence whatsoever from Burnham's team, and I think they're right not to be confident."

While polling has shown him with a consistent lead throughout the campaign, Lewis says that constituency polls often have a "massive" margin of error – and Burnham's advantage has never been beyond that likely margin.

He also believes local election results from April this year should be taken into consideration, with an overwhelming number of Reform UK councillors winning across Manchester.

"Reform won every single councillor in those elections in this part of the world just a few weeks ago," he says.

"So you put all of that together, and actually, the fact that Labour is even competitive, the fact that Burnham is even competitive is actually pretty remarkable."

Campaigning in Makerfield has been so intense, residents have complained about bins stuffed full with party leaflets.

"I'm sure the people around here will be absolutely relieved when we bugger off out of it, and the place comes back to being a place free of politicians, free of canvassers, and free of journalists," Jon says.

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