Iran Israel ceasefire collapses: Has Donald Trump failed?

Read time: 3 mins

In brief…

• Iran has denied Israel’s claims that it breached a ceasefire deal, just hours after it was announced by Donald Trump.
• Benedikt Franke, vice chair of the Munich Security Conference, tells The News Agents that it was always unlikely that the conflict between the rival nations could be ended in just 12 days.
• He says Iran has the potential to bring peace to the Middle East, but believes it is responsible for current problems in the region.

What’s the story?

Hours after Donald Trump declared the conflict between Israel and Iran to be over, and would be known as the ’12 day war’, it was back to square one between the two warring nations.

Israel claimed Iran had broken the ceasefire deal with a fresh rocket strike, which Iran denied, and said it would continue its bombardment of Tehran.

Both Trump, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have said their goals in the conflict, to eradicate Iran’s capability to produce nuclear weapons, had been achieved.

Donald Trump has accused both countries of violating the ceasefire.

"We have two countries that have been fighting so long, and so hard, that they don't know what the f*** they're doing," he told reporters on 24 June.

Strikes will now continue, despite there still being no concrete evidence that Iran has been developing nuclear weapons.

Many people in Iran support calls for an end to the regime of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has been in power since 1989.

The situation has left even senior experts baffled, including Benedikt Franke, vice chair of the Munich Security Conference, who is currently in The Hague, Netherlands, for the NATO summit.

He tells Emily Maitlis the situation as a "confusing" one, and that he never believed it would be over so soon.

“I could not see that this would last any time, because the structural things haven't changed,” he says.

“The Iranian leadership is still intent on destroying the State of Israel.

“Netanyahu still needs to defend Israel against threats from within and outside, and the most dangerous of them is Iran, independently of nuclear weapons, so it really did surprise me that this was over so quickly.”

Trump, who it is believed is desperate to be awarded a Nobel Peace Prize during his second presidency, will be no doubt furious that America’s involvement in the conflict has so far brought him no closer to that goal.

Although Franke does believe his actions may have made some positive impact on the situation in the Middle East.

“His disruptive way of doing politics may have opened a window of opportunity,” Franke adds.

“We all agree that an agreement between Iran and Israel on cessation of hostilities now and forever would be a great thing.

“If he'd managed that, I would have given him the Nobel Peace Prize he so craves.”

There are now questions over how recent developments will impact Iran – either to dissuade it from developing nuclear weapons to avoid more attacks, or convince it of the need for nuclear deterrents.

“Iran could be such a rich and successful country,” he says of the oil-rich nation.

“It could be a beacon of stability in the Middle East, and is now the source of all trouble.”

Listen to the latest episode of The News Agents.