Is a Binface humiliation the only outcome for Reform UK?
Robert Jenrick is the latest Reform MP to face serious questions about his funding, with Nigel Farage’s five million starting a “cascade” of investigations into how its MPs are funded. Can the party recover from this?
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What’s the story?
It's a tough time to be a Reform UK MP.
Not only is the party's leader, Nigel Farage, contending a by-election against a bin (on top of an inquiry into a £5m undisclosed donation from the crypto billionaire), its MPs have had a shocker of a week trying to defend him, and now Robert Jenrick is facing a police investigation into his own funding.
Jenrick, an establishment Tory for 10 years who is perhaps best known for complaining about the lack of "white faces" in Birmingham, is under police investigation over a donation towards his failed Conservative leadership bid in 2024.
An estimated £37,000 donation was made by a US businessman towards Jenrick's run at Tory leadership, potentially breaking UK laws on overseas donors contributing to British politicians.
Jenrick says the allegations are "entirely false" and has blamed the "establishment" for uncovering this information in order to stop Reform "delivering the change that this country so desperately needs."
Lewis Goodall says the media focus on Farage and the five million has opened the floodgates for more investigations into the financial goings-on behind the scenes at Reform.
“It has set off a cascade of more and more stories looking into different elements of either Robert Jenrick's financial affairs, the party overall,” he says.
“But if you talk to Reform people, they are absolutely convinced that we're all misreading this, that the public hates the media, and believe they see it for what it is – they genuinely see it as a witch-hunt.”
To the Reform diehards, what is happening to Nigel Farage and Reform UK is the same as happened to Donald Trump in America, when his crimes (many of which he was found guilty of) were widely investigated by US media.
“You just feel Reform is just fumbling as they go from crashing to one wall to the next, to the next, to the next, tripping over bits of furniture as they go, and feeling more and more aggravated by it,” says Jon Sopel.
“It has been extraordinary watching Nigel Farage, who is normally so sure-footed as a politician, get this one totally bloody wrong over the by-election call in Clacton.
“He was expecting a full contest, and the other parties have said they don't want to do it. This is his circus, he can have it.”
Can Reform bounce back from the Farage vs Binface drama?
At the start of 2026, British politics looked set for a certain shake-up, with Reform UK dominating every opinion poll, and the days of two-party politics in the UK seemingly on its way out of the door.
Now, recent polls still put Reform ahead of Labour and the Conservatives, but with a much slimmer lead, widely believed to be due to a ‘Burnham bounce’, with Andy Burnham expected to replace Keir Starmer as Prime Minister in the coming weeks.
“If I were sitting in Reform HQ now, I would be worried that we would have started the year by being treated as a government-in-waiting, with an incoming prime minister-in-waiting, and might finish the year by being a laughing stock,” Lewis says.
“They should have anticipated this.
“Farage has said today he didn't anticipate that the other parties would choose not to contest the by-election, thereby leaving your main and only opponent as a bin.”
Lewis says no matter what percentage of the Clacton vote goes to Count Binface, Farage (and Reform) ends up “humiliated”.
He says Reform insiders had told him, in early 2026, that the party’s goal for 2026 was to widen its appeal to voters who had never leant their support to Farage or any of his previous political ventures, UKIP or the Brexit Party, and make it to the mainstream.
“If that is what you have in mind, the last thing on earth that you should be doing is ending up in a situation where you are fighting out a by-election with a dustbin,” Lewis adds.
He says the “hive online radical right mind” is being “boiled alive” by the Binface contest, with Reform donor and failed 2025 Mayoral candidate Arron Banks attempting to question who is funding the attention-seeking individual behind the bin.
How Farage crumbled under the first hint of real political scrutiny
Before Reform UK, Farage existed on the fringes of British politics – as part of UKIP, the Brexit Party, and even as a member of the European Parliament.
But if he really wanted a place in mainstream politics – and as Prime Minister – he should have expected to have been scrutinised like every other politician in the House of Commons.
“He wants to be seen as the leader of the opposition, even though he's only got a handful of seats, and as the person who could be the next Prime Minister, and therefore needs to be taken very seriously indeed,” says Jon.
“We're taking you very seriously. We are giving you the same scrutiny that Keir Starmer had when he was gifted a couple of suits and some pairs of glasses.
“This is what it is like if you are seeking the highest office, and the questions are not illegitimate. He is not a victim, as he seeks endlessly to portray himself.”
His new line is to claim he is being made to look like “a war criminal”.
“He is being treated as a politician who wants the highest office,” Jon adds.
“So don't be surprised if people arch an eyebrow over the fact that you've been given five million quid from a crypto billionaire in Thailand, and it doesn't seem altogether clear what that money was for.”