Is Britain a nation of tactical voters?
A number of political campaigns are urging people in Conservative constituencies to use tactical voting to unseat the former government MPs, but will this really influence the results of the General Election?
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In brief...
- Tactical voting campaigns are strategically aimed at redirecting votes away from Conservative candidates towards other parties, particularly in constituencies where Conservatives are vulnerable.
- Organizations like Best for Britain and The Movement Forward advocate for tactical voting to maximize the chances of unseating Conservative MPs and preventing Reform UK from gaining parliamentary seats.
What is tactical voting?
Rishi Sunak, if you’re reading this, you might want to look away now.
Because this is all about a campaign to deliberately take votes away from Conservatives’ candidates and distribute them somewhere (almost anywhere) else – wherever they can be used to unseat MPs or block Tory success in the July General Election.
It’s tactical voting and it’s nothing new, having been hailed a key part of Tony Blair’s triumph over the Tories in 1997 in some corners.
Here’s how it works. Campaigners target Conservative strongholds across the UK and take a look at voter intentions, along with previous election results, to see who the biggest rival is – most often a Liberal Democrat or Labour candidate. Then, they direct constituents likely to vote for the less popular of these parties to switch their vote to the rival polling more strongly, with the goal of ousting the Conservatives from their seat in that area.
Most recently it happened in Tiverton and Honiton in 2022, when tactical voting was credited for overturning the Conservatives’ 24,239 majority by the local Liberal Democrats candidate, following the resignation of Tory MP Neil Parish, who quit after admitting watching porn in the House of Commons chamber.
What do tactical voting campaigns hope to achieve?
Well, quite simply, it hopes to get Conservatives out of their seats. This is an anti-Tory, and anti right-wing campaign.
At the upcoming July General Election, leading campaign group Best For Britain is directing voters in 451 seats across the UK, recommending votes for Labour, the Lib Dems, SNP, Green and Plaid Cymru. Despite all the polls suggesting some successes for Reform UK, the group is not suggesting anyone vote for Nigel Farage and co.
It suggests people in Clacton instead vote for Labour candidate Jovan Owusu-Nepaul.
What do the Conservatives say?
Former MP Nadine Dorries has expressed her concern over the impact of tactical voting, previously telling The News Agents she believes this, and the rise of Reform UK, could "annihilate" the Tories when voters have their say in July.
It's been predicted that some big name Conservatives, including Penny Mordaunt, Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps and James Cleverly could be among those to lose their seats if the tactical voting campaigns in the UK succeed.
Jacob Rees Mogg, Suella Braverman and Liz Truss are also named as possible victims of tactical voting by campaign group, Best For Britain, and its Get Voting campaign.
The News Agents has contacted the Conservatives press office for comment on tactical voting campaigns around the 2024 General Election, but they have yet to respond.
What do the people behind the tactical voting campaigns say?
There are now several groups in the UK pushing for tactical voting in the upcoming General Election – and their aims are the same.
They want to oust Conservative MPs, and make sure Reform UK claim as few seats as possible.
And Naomi Smith, Chief Executive of Best for Britain and founder of GetVoting.org, tells The News Agents that it's working.
“With our polling showing that at least a third of people in almost every constituency are ready to vote tactically to get rid of this government, it’s clear that Britain is now a nation of tactical voters," she says.
She says millions of people have used its online Tactical Voting resources since launch, with media reports of such a high volume of traffic that its website was unable to cope with demand.
Smith claims the organisation is "helping people deliver the heaviest possible defeat to the Government and preventing Reform UK getting a foothold in Parliament."
Josh Russell of The Movement Forward, the volunteer group behind StopTheTories.Vote, tells The News Agents it wants to see the Conservatives place third at the July election, to give the UK "genuine change not just of Government but also opposition."
They say a tactical vote "counts double" to a non-tactical protest vote.
"With trust in politics so low. Rather than leaving the public at the mercy of party bar-charts or their memory of the last election under old boundaries we offer accurate impartial per seat tactical advice," the spokesperson adds.
"As a movement, after the election we intend to press the new Government to reform the voting system so none of us need to vote tactically again."
The Movement Forward say they would not recommend tactical voting for Reform UK to unseat a Conservative MP, telling The News Agents they see both right-wing parties as the "same".
What’s the take-away?
The Conservatives have been open about their voting concerns at the upcoming election – with Rishi Sunak stating he believes a vote for Reform UK is a vote which will help Keir Starmer secure victory and enter Downing Street after 4 July.
But while they’re facing a Farage-shaped challenge from the right, the growing pressure of tactical voting campaigns also sees them in a squeeze from the left as well – and it’s one they’ve yet to address, suggesting campaigns from Best for Britain, The Movement Forward and others are either not seen as a credible threat, or they just don’t want to talk about what happened in 1997.
What do The News Agents think?
Emily Maitlis wonders if polls showing potential huge losses for The Conservatives if people vote tactically could end up damaging Labour's predicted majority in the upcoming General Election.
"If you were going to vote tactically and you see what a large majority Labour might are getting, are you now thinking 'sod that, I don't have to'," she said.
"Are you thinking 'I'm a lifelong Green supporter, lifelong Lib Dem supporter or I want the 'cannabis is safer than alcohol party' in my local constituency and I'm just going to go with my heart now. Is that a danger for Labour?"