Is Donald Trump actually winning the war in Iran?
Many believe the Iran war is at a deadly stalemate – but not Dr Muhanad Seloom. He tells Lewis Goodall why he believes Donald Trump is achieving all his goals in Iran.
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What’s the story?
Donald Trump has been accused of having no plan in Iran. It has been suggested that neither Iran, nor the US and Israel will de-escalate the war.
And that's just what The News Agents have said about the war in Iran.
But Muhanad Seloom, Assistant Professor in Critical Security Studies at the Doha Institute in Qatar, believes they're wrong.
He says Trump is achieving exactly what he set out to do, and that Iran will surrender under the pressure of US and Israel strikes.
Justification from the US for joining Israel in invading Iran has been tricky to keep track of, with various members of the Trump administration claiming its objectives were to stop it developing a nuclear weapon, end its ballistic capabilities, or overthrow the Islamic regime – among others.
Seloom believes its goal is broader than any of these, and is simply to degrade Iran's power to make sure it doesn't pose a threat to the US, or its interests in the Middle East.
And in this, he says, Trump's America is winning.
"I am not cheering for this war. It's nobody's interest," Seloom tells Lewis Goodall.
"But in very cold, realist terms, this campaign is delivering on its terms."
"Almost all of the leadership of the Iranian government has been decapitated."
He believes the damage done to Iran's military capabilities and infrastructure already would make recovering, or developing nuclear capabilities, in the future an enormously expensive project.
Is defence all that Iran has left?
Seloom recently wrote a piece explaining why the US and Israel's are – so far – a success, which was shared on social media by Trump.
Based in Qatar, which has been targeted during the war, he says he has first-hand experience of how degraded Iran's capabilities have become.
He says in the early days of the war, the skies overhead would be frequently disrupted by Iranian missiles. Now life in the city is "normal", with the exception of the occasional weapon overhead, often destroyed in the skies en route to its target.
The US, he believes, is making massive strides to neuter Iran’s military capacity, despite conflicting evidence over whether it intended to develop nuclear weapons.
"Iran's leadership is now trying to protect itself – whoever is left of the leadership is protecting themselves," Seloom adds, but says there is also a moral argument for the methods with which Iran's leaders have been killed, mostly in assassinations.
Is Trump bringing anything positive to the people of Iran?
Seloom also believes that in decimating the power of the Iranian leadership, Trump is also fulfilling his promise to the Iranian people, first made when protesters were being killed in the streets by state forces.
"Trump first called on them to rise against their own government and take over later," Seloom says.
"A few days ago he said that the Iranian people are still weak, and wouldn't be able to rise again against the government.
"The US and Israel need to finish the job by weakening and dismantling the Iranian government so that the people take over."
He doesn't believe Trump really cares about the people of Iran or its future leadership – as long as it doesn't pose any threat to the US or its interest.
"I don't see the US administration really having that as their strategic objective," he adds.
"What they would go for is degrading Iran's military capabilities, making sure that Iran does not own a nuclear bomb, and then they will see where this goes."
How could the Iran War end?
For now, the war wages on, but a new threat of sending troops – American or Israeli – into Iran would be a "massive mistake".
"I don't see the US sending boots on the ground," Seloom says.
"That would be strategically unattainable. 1000s of American soldiers would be slaughtered in Iran.
"It is a massive country with a 90+ million population."
Instead, he says, he believes it is likely the US and Israel will move from military targets to Iranian infrastructure – which has already been targeted in recent controversial strikes.
"The US administration owes this to the US, the world, and its allies in the region," he adds.
"This region has already suffered enough, too many wars, and many argue that these wars did not really deliver peace or stability."
Long term, he believes Iran will surrender on the promise that it will no longer pose any threat to the Middle East, and to not restart production of long-range missiles.
"In terms of the ongoing war on Iran by the US and Israel, it is delivering its set objectives, at least in military terms," Seloom adds.
"Whether that will be translated into sustainable stability is yet to be seen."