Is it all over for centrist politics?

Read time: 5 mins

In brief…

• YouGov polling places Labour on just 17% of votes if an election were to happen today, trailing Reform on 27%, highlighting how unpopular Keir Starmer’s government has become.
• The News Agents say that the popularity of Reform in the polling, plus the rise of Zack Polanski’s Green Party, shows how greatly British politics has moved to the edges of the spectrum.
• Labour are seen as representing ‘the system’ during a rise in politicians positioning themselves as ‘anti-establishment’.

What’s the story?

A new week, a new poll – and it's more bad news for the government.

New polling by YouGov shows just 17% of people in the UK would vote for Labour if a general election was to be held today.

It follows a trend of decline in support since Labour won the 2024 general election in July last year. The Tories have also continued to lose support, Lib Dems have seen a marginal increase, while the good news is preserved for Reform UK and The Green Party.

Reform continues to lead voter intention, with 27% of people saying they would vote for Nigel Farage and co, while the Greens are on 16% – an increase of 6% since Zack Polanski became leader of the party in September 2025, and also has a 39% share among voters aged between 18-24.

Of course, the next general election isn't expected to happen until 2029, and the recent result of the Caerphilly by-election – where Labour was ousted after 100 years in a two-horse race between Reform UK and Plaid Cymru – showed how unpredictable British politics has become.

Emily Maitlis says the Caerphilly by-election result was “seismic” – not just for Plaid, but for everyone’s perception of how opinion polls, and tactical voting, is playing into modern British politics.

“All the polling before that had put Reform and Plaid neck and neck,” she says.

“People were going from Labour to Plaid to vote tactically. They weren't trying to keep Reform out by backing the main candidate, they were going to the edges, they were going to the Welsh Nationalist Party.

“What that election result told us is that everyone is leaving the centre to go to the edges.”

How big is the shift in British politics?

This push towards the edges of politics, a rise in populism, has been seen before in British politics – such as with the Social Democrat Party in the 1980s or the Brexit Party in the last decade.

But Lewis Goodall says those instances have never previously come with such a “corrosive and caustic feeling” towards the political system as the UK is experiencing now.

"This is what the Green Party and Reform are, in their own ways, both exploiting successfully, this feeling of dissatisfaction with the system," Lewis says.

Former Labour leader Neil Kinnock recently told The News Agents he believes Keir Starmer can turn his fortunes around by simply delivering “practical” and positive changes for the people of the UK.

But Lewis says the shift in our politics is already so deep, there may be nothing that could shift the dial back to Labour’s favour.

"I don't think it would go anywhere near extinguishing threats from the anti-system parties," he adds.

"There is something that has just shifted in our politics."

"You need to have the deepest clarity about your message and what you stand for. Just delivering, I don't think would make much difference in this political situation."

There have been recent flashes of recognition of this from Labour, he adds, with both Keir Starmer and MP Wes Streeting both openly condemning comments by Reform MP Sarah Pochin as racist.

Emily suggests politics may now be “imitating social media”, with the energy and excitement coming from sharing views from the left or right fringes.

Why is Keir Starmer so unpopular?

Party leaders such as Farage and Polanski may be riding high with this approach, but the same can't be said for Keir Starmer.

And ultimately, with the rise of these men – both of whom position themselves as anti-establishment – Starmer finds himself in a position where it may never work for him.

"One of the reasons he's become so disliked so quickly is that so many voters believe, in many senses, he embodies the system," says Lewis.

"I think it's quite unfair, but to them, he is almost an AI-generated version of what a politician looks and sounds like.

"I'm not sure that he will ever be able to channel some of that kind of anti-system feeling, which you're seeing successful left-of-centre political actors around the world using."

What comes next?

If everyone believed the opinion polls, then Reform is a dead-cert for the next general election.

But as the Caerphilly by-election showed, nothing is set in stone – especially with an election likely four years away, and no real growth in Reform's (albeit convincing) lead.

"There does seem to be a bit of a ceiling to Reform support," says Lewis.

"If it was on 35% consistently, that would be wipeout territory in our bizarre system, but they're not.

"They're never really gracing 30 points or getting close to it."

The really interesting numbers, Emily adds, are those growing for The Greens Party.

"The Greens are on 16% and Zach Polanski has only been leader of the party for two months – that is an astonishing rise, although there might be a limit to that as well.

"But if he carries on for six months, he's overtaken Labour, and he's overtaken the Conservatives, and then you're dealing with something that looks like Reform, with the Greens in second place."

The next step after that, she adds, would be for Polanski to tour Labour heartlands explaining to voters why a vote for Labour, in the hope of stopping Reform from entering government, would be a vote wasted – much like Nigel Farage has done in prime areas of Tory voters.

"There is a world in which there is some kind of progressive hung parliament, a co-government between the Lib Dems, Greens and Labour," Emily adds.

"It is not unimaginable anymore."

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