‘Is it all over for Ukraine?’: World leaders ‘talking past each other’ in peace effort

Read time: 5 minutes

In brief…

• The Ukraine conflict is at a critical juncture, with world leaders pursuing different and potentially conflicting peace strategies.
• Donald Trump's decision to pull US military aid to Ukraine has created a major diplomatic challenge, leaving Ukraine vulnerable and European leaders scrambling to fill the support gap.
• Different global powers have divergent approaches to ending the war: Trump is seeking a deal directly with Putin without Ukraine's involvement, the UK and France are attempting to develop a peace plan with potential peacekeeping troops, while Ukraine remains committed to defending its sovereign territory and resisting territorial concessions.

What’s the story?

If you listen to Donald Trump, Keir Starmer or most European leaders, then a peace deal for Ukraine is on the horizon.

Russia's illegal invasion has lasted more than three years, and claimed the lives of up to 420,000 people, with billions in aid sent to Ukraine in that time.

World leaders all agree that the conflict needs to come to an end, with several calling for a lasting peace.

The problem is that while countries from all corners of the world are aiming for the same outcome, they’re not agreed on how to achieve it.

The UK and France have said they are working on a peace deal together, although, what this is, and whether their intentions align, remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, after an explosive Oval Office meeting with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, President Trump has said the US is pulling all military aid to Ukraine - a huge blow to the country, and one that will be left to Europe to try to plug.

"It feels to me right now as if everybody within every major power, with regards to the Ukraine war, is talking past each other," says Lewis Goodall.

“It's like four parallel conversations, and none of them meet in the middle.”

So how can peace be achieved with America, the UK, Europe and Ukraine all pulling in different directions?

What’s Keir Starmer and the UK’s peace plan for Ukraine?

The UK’s Ukraine strategy appears to be unchanged by Trump’s move to pull military aid to Ukraine.

Following a Ukraine summit, attended by 19 world leaders in London on Sunday, Keir Starmer said he is working on a peace deal with France. This, he says, will outline how to "stop the fighting" in Ukraine, and will be presented to the US in hope it backs the plan.

The UK Prime Minister has found himself placed as the middleman between the US and Europe in the current situation, following a relatively successful meeting with Donald Trump.

"Starmer knows that all roads lead back to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, the White House and Donald Trump," says Lewis.

"Without it, there is no effective deterrent in the short term. But for that deterrent to be effective, Putin has to believe it. Zelensky has to agree to it in order to sign the deal, and Europe has to believe it."

Starmer has also pledged to send British troops to act as peacekeepers in Ukraine when a peace deal is signed and conflict has ended.

In the short-term, the UK will continue to send financial and military aid to Ukraine.

What is Europe’s peace plan for Ukraine?

“The problem is that, as ever, with European responses, you're potentially starting to see some cracks,” Lewis says.

While Britain and France have announced that they’ll work together on a peace deal for Ukraine, Lewis is quick to point out that “we have no details”.

France put forward the idea of a month-long ceasefire, with Emmanual Macron and his foreign minister Jean-Noël Barrot suggesting the UK had agreed to the plan.

The latter said: “Such a truce – on air, sea and energy infrastructure – would allow us to determine whether Vladimir Putin is acting in good faith” and gauge his attitude to “real peace negotiations”.

Britain, however, is not as aligned on that plan as France seems to think it is.

When asked to confirm the idea, Luke Pollard, the UK armed forces minister, told the BBC, it was “not a plan we currently recognise,” and “no agreement has been made on what a truce looks like.”

“Meanwhile, who's the one laughing all the way to the bank? It's Russia, with reports in the Russian state newspapers saying, ‘the Western system is crashing like a house of cards’.

When, or if, Britain and France manage to draw up a peace deal, Lewis points out it “seems likely, or indeed certain, to have troops in Ukraine - and Russia itself has said it will never accept that.”

Russia has said it would not sign any peace deal involving overseas troops positioned on its borders.

Europe, like the UK, has remained steadfast in its support for Ukraine in spite of the recent US actions.

Less than 24 hours after Trump said he would cut military aid to Ukraine, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the EU would boost defence spending, sharing a proposal that could see a total of 800bn euros in defence expenditure "for a safe and resilient Europe".

"Europe is ready to step up," she said.

What’s Donald Trump and the US’ plan for peace in Ukraine?

Donald Trump is working on a peace deal for Ukraine.

But, he's working on that deal with Vladimir Putin of Russia, the illegal aggressor in the conflict, and Zelensky has not been involved in any talks about ending the war in his country.

When the two men did meet, in front of reporters and cameras in the Oval Office, the meeting was cut short after a clash over Zelensky not wearing a suit, and whether he had expressed gratitude for US aid over the past three years.

Zelensky’s meeting was held following comparably calm and positive meetings between Trump and Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron.

"The plan last week was for Macron and Starmer to go in to warm it up for Zelensky, to try and softly persuade Trump that it was still worth backing Ukraine,” says Lewis.

“Then, of course, the meltdown, the showdown takes place in the Oval Office. We all know what happened next.”

Trump’s clear disdain for Zelensky, and for sending American dollars overseas to Ukraine has led to the most catastrophic moment for Ukraine since the war began - the US pulling all military aid to the country.

“Pretty much the only thing that might bring Putin to the table is the threat of continued Western support for Ukraine, thereby making any further territorial advances less likely,” Lewis says.

“If that military aid stops, then his territorial ambitions can be greater, not lesser.”

US Vice-President JD Vance says the door is open for Ukraine to return to negotiations if Zelensky "is willing to seriously talk peace".

What’s Zelensky and Ukraine’s plan for peace?

“Whatever else you might say about Zelensky, he has been brave, he has been forceful, and he has tried to defend the idea of sovereign nations not being invaded by brutal allies,” Jon Sopel says.

But being brave will only get you so far - what Zelensky yearns for is an end to the war. How this will be achieved, with US aid off the table and Zelensky unwilling to hand over Ukrainian territory, remains to be seen.

“Ukraine and many Ukrainians, and many in Eastern Europe, reiterate that as far as they're concerned, any territorial concessions, which seems to be at the heart of what Trump and even Britain and France are saying on the choir, are completely unacceptable,” Lewis says.

A Ukrainian MP, Fedir Venislavsky, has told Ukrainian news agency RBC: that even without US aid, Ukraine has enough resources to continue fighting for roughly “half a year,” adding that “of course, it will be much more difficult”.

Lewis believes Putin might see the recent developments between the US and Ukraine and think it’s time to “press on” and try to grab more territory.

“It feels to me right now that that landing zone between a deal that both Putin and Zelensky would accept, even if you get the Americans back on side, feels so slender to the point of non-existence.”

What’s The News Agent’s take?

Keir Starmer sounded so “optimistic” on Sunday night and well into Monday, after the Ukraine summit in London, Emily says.

“He genuinely thought that there was something that he, along with European leaders, were doing to get the Trump administration on board to back Zelensky for a peace deal for Ukraine.”

But the news mere hours later that Trump was pulling all military aid to Ukraine “whacked people in the stomach,” she says.

Lewis agrees, noting that it “completely blindsided Kyiv and European capitals”.

“Europe and America seem to be going in two completely opposite directions, with America determinedly trying to undermine the European effort of putting in some kind of peacekeepers into Ukraine,” Jon adds.

“America is much more interested in a deal that makes Vladimir Putin happy.”

Since Trump took office in late January, there has been “no corollary of pressure being put on the Russian side, far from it” he goes on.

Since taking office, the President of the US has done a number of things that work in Russia’s interest, including easing sanctions on Russia, ordering a halt to cyber ops against Russia, voting with Russia at the UN to oppose the motion condemning Russia's aggression in Ukraine - and now, this.

“What Trump has done in the last six weeks is basically remove all of the substantial leverage that the United States had over Russia, all of the things that might have brought Putin to the table,” Lewis points out.

The big question is - what can Europe do now?

“​​Do Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron persevere with Plan A?” Lewis asks, which was the idea of a one month ceasefire to call Putin’s bluff.

“He says he wants to have peace. Ok, well, come on, let's have peace while we try and work out something later on.

“I think it's highly unlikely Putin will do that because of what Trump has done. But nonetheless, they still think there is the possibility of persuading Trump to come to the table - feels difficult right now - but Trump is quixotic. He can change his mind.”

If that doesn’t happen, what is plan B?

“Plan B, it seems, is a mass program of European rearmament.”

Lewis thinks if Europe can achieve this it could prove beneficial for two reasons. The first, because it could be a moment for the European security umbrella to “grow up” and “finally realise that it has to look after itself”.

The second, is that European leaders could use rearming as a moment to revitalise struggling industries that can prove to be a deterrent to Russia in the medium term.

“I can see if Europe gets its act together and quickly, how we might get to meet both of those objectives in the medium term. But what about the short term? And it's the short term where we have the most peril and jeopardy right now,” Lewis says.

The reality of the options left on the table leaves Jon asking: “Is it all over for Ukraine?”

“You start to think it is, because whatever Europe can put in place is going to take time, and time isn't on Ukraine's side right now.”

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