Is Keir Starmer using recognition of a Palestinian state as a bargaining chip?

Read time: 5 mins

In brief…

• Keir Starmer’s commitment to recognising the state of Palestine in September sounds like a “punishment” of Israel, rather than a government principle, say The News Agents.
• Author and historian Peter Frankopan tells The News Agents what recognised statehood would mean for Palestine, but says the UK is too late to the conversation to influence international policy.
• Despite many people in Israel now wanting the war to end, there remains a disconnect in Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, who does not yet see how attitudes around the globe are shifting in regards to Israel’s actions in Gaza.

What’s the story?

The word doing the heavy lifting in Keir Starmer’s statement on recognising Palestine as a state is ‘if’.

The UK will join 147 (of 193) United Nation states in recognising Palestine if Israel doesn’t end the “suffering” in the region, if it promises not to annex the West Bank, if Hamas releases all remaining hostages, disarms and agrees to have no more involvement in governing.

It is a far less concrete stance than the one recently taken by Emmanuel Macron, when he announced France would join other UN states in recognising Palestine, unconditionally, from September this year.

“Starmer sounded as if this was a punishment, not a principle,” says Jon Sopel.

“He has always had an opposition to the idea of recognising a state of Palestine, because he said it was purely performative. It had no real meaning.”

Starmer’s words have been condemned by Donald Trump as “rewarding Hamas” and by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who described his words as "appeasement towards jihadist terrorists."

Recognition of an independent state of Palestine, separate from Israel, would be a step towards achieving a two-state solution, which is the preferred resolution for many world leaders.

Netanyahu has said a two-state solution would give Hamas a "launch pad to annihilate Israel".

What do Starmer’s words mean for Gaza?

What Starmer has proposed puts pressure on Israel to end the war, and while there are also demand on Hamas in the UK’s recognition offer, (such as releasing hostages and signing up to a new ceasefire deal), if statehood is Hamas’s goal, it may be in its interest to do nothing at all.

"If Hamas does start to release the hostages, then they don't get their statehood recognised," says Emily Maitlis.

"In other words, if there is a viable peace plan, substantive steps to end the appalling situation in Gaza and secure a ceasefire and a long term sustainable plan, if those hostages get released, then Hamas has talked itself out of a Palestinian state."

What would state recognition mean for Palestine?

If Palestine was recognised as a state by the United Nations, it would not only gain a seat at the UN, but also protections under international law, and the ability to call on its allies to protect it from attack.

Around the world, its representatives would be upgraded to ambassadors, which comes with increased protections.

But aside from being controlled by a proscribed terror group, the main hurdle in recognising Palestine are its contested borders, with Israel having seized parts of its territory during decades of conflict.

"Normally a recognised state has internationally recognised boundaries," Peter Frankopan, historian and author, tells The News Agents.

He says there are questions around whether those borders will be the ones that existed before the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7 2023, or whether those will be "chipped away" by Netanyahu's government.

"It would also have membership of slightly arcane things like postal unions and the ability to have its own domain names,” Frankopan adds.

"But above all, it's to be able to protect itself from aggression from outside, so upgrading Palestine into a state means that it has access to be able to draw on other states, and their ability to defend it."

He adds the timing of Starmer's statement, after more than 60,000 people have been killed in Gaza, may be a case of too little too late, saying that "the horse bolted a long time ago" when it comes to the UK's position to influence change in the region.

"The UK probably can't do an enormous amount, but Starmer has taken a line that is not particularly helpful," he adds.

"We could be braver, and probably should be braver at putting our money where our mouth is, and to say that what we've been seeing has been one of the most horrific incidents of the last century."

What’s The News Agents’ take?

As more UN states move to recognise the state of Palestine, it seems increasingly likely that it will eventually fall under the jurisdiction, and protection, of the UN.

But will Israel – and its senior officials – see this change and understand why protecting people in Gaza is important?

Emily has been told by Israeli civil servants there is a disconnect between those, like themselves, "at the coalface of what's going on" and Israel's government.

“It seems really obvious to us –  the level of disgust there is towards the Netanyahu government right now,” she says.

“Everyone can see those pictures of starving children. Even Trump has been speaking about the pictures of starving children, but I don't think it's hitting home inside the cabinet, it is absolutely sealed off to public opinion.”

Jon believes Israel is aware how much pressure it is now under to ease the plight of starving people in Gaza, and how much international support it has “squandered” since 1,500 people were killed on October 7.

An estimated 60,000 people have been killed in Gaza by Israeli forces since then, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.

“Israel is in a situation now where I think it will take generations for it to get back the reputation that once it had,” he says.

“You've got so many Israelis who think this is shit, and needs to stop.

“Somehow, those in Jerusalem who are in government still think it's okay, it's the right thing to do, and anything else is surrender to Hamas.”

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