Is the Republican Party ready to turn on Trump?
A cost of living crisis, worsened by his war in Iran, is making Trump increasingly unpopular as the 2026 midterms approach. Is this the moment the Republican Party grows a backbone and stands up to the president?
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What’s the story?
It doesn't look good for Trump in the build up to the 2026 midterms.
Despite winning a decisive victory over Democrat rival Kamala Harris in 2024, he is expected to lose many votes, states, and potentially even both the House Of Representatives and Congress when America returns to the polls in November.
If they can afford the petrol it'll take to get to the polling station, that is.
America has experienced an extreme cost of living crisis since Trump returned to power, and despite the president and his administration saying the opposite, costs have risen exponentially for American citizens in the past 18 months.
Despite this – caused in part by Trump's own unworkable tariffs scheme, and exacerbated by his war in Iran – he has so far held onto support of the Republican Party. But could that be about to change?
"If the President loses the House or loses the Senate, they lose authority simultaneously," says Jon Sopel.
"If this happens, people will be looking to the 2028 presidential election, and who's going to be the front runner.
"I think that's the moment when you might discover that senators and congressmen and women have found their backbone."
Will midterms result reflect Trump's 'profound lack of judgement'?
The Iran War has not gone to plan for Trump – no matter how many times he says it's going great, everything's fine, it'll all be over in a few weeks.
Soaring oil prices worldwide, the underestimated resilience of the Iranian regime, NATO allies at first refusing to help and later outright condemning his strikes on the country.
Jon says that challenging Trump on any of his "foreign adventurism", even as prices skyrocket on everyday items in America, was seen as a "Rubicon that mustn't be crossed" – until now, maybe.
"I think Donald Trump will find that his wings are clipped, and having been surrounded by people who just say yes to whatever he wants, that will change if the midterm elections go the other way," he says.
"You might suddenly see pushback on tariffs and other policies, which have been nodded through by Republicans."
There have already been divisions inside MAGA, with former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, once one of Trump's biggest cheerleaders, stepping down in November after criticising Trump's support for Israel's invasion of Palestine, and a lack of transparency over the Epstein Files.
"It's certainly true that Congress has been at its most supine point in modern political history," says Lewis.
"Trump's authority is going to be crippled by this war.
"I think it is going to permanently lessen his authority over the American political system, proving with each passing day to show a profound lack of judgment."
Trump's biggest failing in his second term, Jon says, is his "imperial overreach" – threatening to invade Greenland, and invasions on both Iran and Venezuela.
Will MAGA voters turn on Trump too?
Trump's second term in power has defied expectations, with support for his MAGA leadership seemingly staying strong, despite America becoming gripped in an economic crisis, sparked by Trump's tariffs and worsened by his war in Iran.
And loyalty to their leader has made things difficult to predict or explain.
"For those of us who don't like Trump, one of the things that we've always found difficult to understand is how someone so completely removed from the day-to-day life of ordinary people has often struck the sort of deepest chord with working class Americans," says Lewis.
"They really feel like the guy understands them.
"I think, particularly culturally, he does understand them. But the longer he's in power, he's becoming almost a truer version of himself.
When questioned about the enormous cost of his war in Iran as people in America struggle to pay bills, he has said the cost is worth it.
More recently, he said his administration could not pay for childcare or Medicaid because of the cost of the war.
And it could be his unfiltered politics, once so appealing, that finally ends his grip on many working class Americans.
"He looks like Louis the 16th, sat on his throne, not giving a damn about prices, or how this is affecting ordinary Americans," Lewis says.
"Well, it ain't worth it if you're living on the bread line, or on food stamps – and that is what their president is saying."