Is Trump set to destabilise Europe? ‘I don't think there is a master plan’

Read time: 5 mins

In brief…

• Donald Trump has said talks between the two leaders could take place “very soon”, as Europe leaders meet separately to discuss the future of Ukraine.
• JD Vance spoke at the Munich Security Conference, using the platform to claim that the biggest threat to Europe is a lack of free speech.
• Putin wins again, with Trump’s readiness to work with the dictator essentially bringing him “in from the cold” after years of being excluded from European discussions, due to his invasion of Ukraine.

What’s the story?

Peace talks are set to take place between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.

Not invited? That would be Volodomyr Zelensky, leader of Ukraine, the country Putin's Russian forces first illegally invaded in 2022. No representative from any European country will be involved.

Speaking with NBC on Sunday 16 February, Zelensky said Ukraine would "never accept" any peace deal brokered without the country's involvement, and warned that if a peace deal is struck in favour of Russia, it will seek to occupy all of Europe.

Trump has already hinted that part of any deal he reaches with Putin will involve the loss of Ukrainian land to its eastern invaders.

He has also said the meeting, set to take place in Saudi Arabia, is likely to happen "very soon".

But while European leaders are excluded from Trump's intimidation tete-a-tete with the Russian warmonger, they will instead meet in Paris on Monday (17 February) for an emergency summit to discuss Russia's ongoing invasion and what the future holds for Ukraine.

In the UK, Keir Starmer has said he is "ready and willing" to send UK troops to Ukraine, if the war ends, in order to maintain peace at Ukraine's borders – wherever they may lie when Trump has finished his negotiations.

The US president has been typically dismissive when it comes to working with other world leaders – specifically Starmer.

When asked what the two would discuss, Trump replied bluntly: “I don’t know, it was his request,” before adding that he gets along with Starmer “very well”.

“I think it would be quite obvious what he might want to talk about, which is the potential of a Trump brokered peace deal in Eastern Europe, and what role Britain and other European states might play in that,” says Lewis Goodall.

“Trump and the current US administration simply either don't care or aren't that interested in what Europe has got to say about this.”

What’s been happening?

Valentine’s weekend was a busy one for Trump and his deputy president JD Vance, who were both focused more on warfare and verbal attacks more than romance.

While Trump was gearing up to meet one-on-one with the Russian leader, JD Vance was making claims at the Munich Security Conference that the biggest threat to Europe isn’t Russia, it isn’t China, but instead is the lack of free-speech. Vance said the continent is in "retreat" from its "fundamental values", and is now at odds with America.

Lewis describes it as a "speech of shame".

Jon Sopel describes the events of the past few days as “an absolute shocker” for Europeans who still believe in a western alliance.

"It was a speech that could have been delivered at any one of Trump's rallies over the course of the election campaign, when you were trying to stoke culture wars," Jon says.

"America is just throwing things at Europe, and I don't think there is a grand master plan.

“Trump says he just wants to see peace. Great, but what does peace look like? I think Vladimir Putin knows exactly what that looks like, and will stop for now, but will Rearm and go again. What is Donald Trump's plan if that happens?”

Trump has also put pressure on Romania to lift the restrictions on Andrew and Tristan Tate, currently charged with sexual misconduct, organised crime and money laundering.

Emily says he has moved on from freeing prisoners in the US to interfering with criminal systems overseas, interfering in "small countries that probably won't be able to resist him".

"We realise that Trump loves strong men, strong authoritarian leaders, and loves bullying smaller countries. That's what he's picked on Canada. That's why he's picked on Mexico," says Emily Maitlis.

Lewis says the US government – and specifically Trump and Vance – does not care about former Soviet states and their democracies.

"They see themselves as a leader, leaders of a wider ideological crusade that is within borders, as well as between countries," he says.

What's The News Agents take?

With Trump and Vance sowing division in the EU, there's really only one person who benefits, and that – once again – is Putin.

"Trump has handed Putin exactly what he always wanted throughout all of this, Putin's design and aim has been to have a moment where he and Trump, or whoever the American president is, get together in a room and they withdraw the map of Europe as basically Putin will see fit," says Lewis.

"In Trump agreeing to bilaterally negotiate, keeping the Ukrainians out of the room, Trump has handed Putin an enormous victory, which is to concede that he has the legitimacy and the right as two great powers to bypass the needs, requirements and desires of smaller states."

Emily adds that Putin also needs Trump to "bring him in from the cold", having been ostracised from the global community – through sanctions and other political actions – for almost three years.

"Putin has been frozen out of all EU negotiations, all US negotiations, all conversations, since he invaded Ukraine," she says.

"It starts and ends with Trump and Putin."

And, with Starmer's promise to send troops to Ukraine to help ensure its security after the invasion ends, it will be the UK, and the rest of the EU, that end up paying for Trump's deal with Putin, no matter how "shitty" it turns out to be, Jon adds.

"It's going to be British troops, French troops, and other country's troops, who are going to have to police a border that is four times the size of the demilitarized zone between South Korea and North Korea.

“That is a vast undertaking," Jon says.

Not only will it be vast, and expensive, it may also anger the Russians, who have previously said that any NATO troops moved into Ukraine will be seen as an escalation of the conflict.

"You're a peacekeeper until somebody starts to escalate the conflict or fire at you, and then you fire back, and then you're a soldier," Jon adds.

"Do we want British soldiers fighting Russian troops? Because that's essentially what happens to peacekeeping when the peace ends."

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