Leo Varadkar: ‘We are in a prelude to the demise of democracy’

Read time: 4 mins

In brief…

• Leo Varadkar describes the current political landscape as a “setback” to a fairer system for all, but warns that there is a global threat to democracy with the rise of autocracy in many parts of the world.
• He says UK politicians must stop the rise of the far-right by proving to voters that they are working to make people’s lives better, not worse.
• He criticises the easy-solutions offered by populist politicians on the right, such as Reform UK, and warns against the impact of withdrawing from the ECHR in an attempt to find an easy answer for the number of asylum seekers in the UK.

What’s the story?

Leo Varadkar, former Taoiseach of Ireland, has warned that global politics today is now reminiscent of the 1930s, when Nazis rose to power in Hitler's Germany.

He says the rise of authoritarianism is, historically, the "prelude to the demise of democracy".

"I fear we're in a period now that is reminiscent of the 1930s, and is essentially the rise of authoritarianism – the desire by a lot of people to have a strong leader and government that just gets things done, even at the expense of democracy," Varadkar tells Lewis Goodall.

"Despite people talking about free speech, it's being cracked down on, which is what's happening in the US – attacking media freedom, attacking academic freedom."

But the former leader, who aligned with Ireland’s centre-right but helped introduce progressive laws on same-sex marriage and abortion rights while in power, believes the current swing towards the right and far-right is an unfortunate step in a long-term move towards the left.

“The arc of history does bend towards progress and justice, but there are always setbacks along the way,” he says.

“There are backlashes, and they can be very deep.”

“We see that in Russia, we see in Hungary, and in other countries in Europe. We see it now in the US, and all those things historically are preludes to the demise of democracy.”

But while he admits the stakes are “high”, he says those who believe in progress and justice are “not beaten”.

“This still has to play out. Every generation has to have the fight. It's never just one.”

Is the UK facing a rise in authoritarianism?

Some claim the rise of Reform is an echo of what has happened in many countries across Europe and the US, with the rise of the right – and the authoritarianism that has followed.

With Reform polling highly in almost all UK opinion polls, Varadkar says he still believes in democracy in the UK, and does not believe its institutions are under threat.

He says countering this rise is the job of politicians, who need to prove to voters that their work is benefitting their lives.

“What drives people to populism and to extremism – whether it's of the left or the right – is a general dissatisfaction with the state of affairs, their living standards and the institutions that are supposed to be there to help them,” Varadkar says.

“What has been positive in Ireland is – notwithstanding our problems, including our very severe housing crisis – real living standards have increased significantly in recent years and particularly during the cost of living crisis, because we had the money to do so.

“We were able to help people with their energy bills, we were able to bring in extra child support, even though economists criticised us for it heavily for giving financial help to people who maybe didn't always need it.”

In the UK, the Labour government has faced fierce criticism since coming to power in July 2024 for attempting to remove winter fuel payments, keeping the two-child benefit cap in place and more measures that have been seen to make some people’s lives more difficult.

How will this affect Ireland?

Varadkar describes politics in Britain as the “background music” to what happens in Irish politics, and says the rise in populism currently seen with the rise of Reform is something he has seen in Ireland during his career.

“I saw in my country a left wing populist party, Sinn Fein, lead the polls for a very long time. and it came in third place in terms of popular vote in the elections when they actually happened,” he says, suggesting opinion polls can never be trusted to accurately predict the outcome of a general election.

“This is still playing out. It is clearly very volatile.”

Among that volatility is the ongoing discussion of the UK’s place in the European Convention of Human Rights (ECHR), and the Refugee Convention – which some claim leaving is an easy solution to the UK’s so-called migrant crisis.

Doing so could free the UK from any formal requirement to offer asylum to anyone.

But the rulings of the ECHR are embedded into the Good Friday Agreement, and the UK leaving this could breach that and have major impacts for Ireland.

Varadkar says he believes both the ECHR and the Refugee Convention should be “modernised”, and calls on the UK to work through that process with other countries, rather than a hard withdrawal.

“If they withdraw from it, they're not just withdrawing from a set of rules around asylum, it's a whole set of rights ranging from things like equal pay for men and women,” he says.

“The consequences are much greater than people may think in the UK.”

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