Marine Le Pen's legal loss: 'She'll play victim to enhance her political currency’

Read time: 5 mins

In brief…

• Marine Le Pen has been barred from standing in for public office for five years, ending her hopes of becoming France’s next president in 2027, after being found guilty of embezzling EU funds.
• French politics expert Sophie Peddar tells Emily Maitlis that while current RN president Jordan Bardella is popular, he lacks the experience to become the president of France.
• Journalist and author Philippe Sands compares Le Pen’s likely next step to that of Donald Trump and Adolf Hitler, both of whom leveraged legal losses to portray themselves as victims of a system to increase support.

What’s the story?

In November 2024, Marine Le Pen claimed she was facing "political death" in a court case about misuse of European Union funds.

Today, that 'political death' has been confirmed, at least in the short term, with the leader of France's far-right National Rally (RN) party having been barred from running for office for five years, with immediate effect, after being found guilty of embezzling money from the EU.

Le Pen walked out of the courtroom in Paris as the verdict was still being handed down, following a trial which ended in November 2024.

The former presidential hopeful was found guilty of embezzlement, along with eight current or former officials from the RN who served as Members of the European Parliament, of using €3m (£2.51m) of EU funding to pay staff based in France, between 2004 and 2016.

Le Pen has been sentenced to four years in prison, two of which will be suspended, but the remaining time may be spent with an electronic tag, and she is expected to appeal the jailing.

She has also been ordered to pay a fine of €100,000 (£82,635).

What next for the National Rally?

Sophie Peddar, Paris Bureau Chief at The Economist, tells Emily Maitlis the sentence was "clearly a surprise" for Le Pen, considering her actions as it was being delivered.

Peddar says RN appeared "completely unprepared" for a sentence so harsh, as Le Pen’s five-year ruling was precisely what had been called for, while other guilty RN colleagues were barred for much shorter periods.

While Le Pen has said she will appeal the ruling, Peddar says even if she were to win, having today’s sentence overturned would be unlikely to have finished in the courts before the 2027 presidential election.

The leadership of RN seems likely to continue under Jordan Bardella, the 29-year-old politician who has served as the right-wing party's president while Le Pen has been battling the French legal system.

But Peddar doubts Bardella has the experience to win the next presidential race, and says succeeding Emmanuel Macron is now "much less daunting" for any politician looking to step into France's top job.

"He hasn't got very much experience, but he is very popular," Peddar tells Emily.

"He has a very strong Tiktok following and a lot of young people like him.

"When you watch him in a TV studio, he's unperturbed by questions, he's got a lot of composure for a young politician, but still, a presidential bid requires something else, and he is the logical candidate, but it will be a big challenge for him."

Could the situation work in the favour of Le Pen?

While the ruling may seem like an end for the 56-year-old’s presidential ambitions, this may not necessarily be the case – and could instead boost her political position, as others have done before her when they’ve found themselves in similar situations.

Author and journalist Philippe Sands compares Le Pen's situation to both Donald Trump, and Adolf Hitler.

The wartime German leader lost a number of court cases while head of the German Workers Party, using these losses to appear persecuted by authorities when it later evolved into the Nazi Party.

"That playbook was, of course, followed by Mr. Trump," Sands tells Emily Maitlis.

“This will be the same thing: ‘I'm a victim. The establishment has ganged up against me’. The fear has to be that this judgement will have precisely the opposite effect that it was intended to have.”

Sands describes the judges who ruled on Le Pen as "damned if they do, damned if they don't" when it came to her five-year suspension from running for office.

"The upshot, I suspect, will be to enhance her political currency. It will make her stronger. She'll be able to claim she's a victim, just as Mr. Trump did, just as Mr. Hitler did.

"I'm not drawing direct analogies between all of those characters, but it's the fact that a powerful person using the law to create a sense of victimhood and enhance their political power is tried, tested and very successful. And if I were advising Marine Le Pen, I'd say I've been victimised."

He adds that he would be surprised if the judges who handed down Le Pen's sentence weren't "acutely aware" of the repercussions of their ruling.

Peddar agrees, saying being barred from running for president could increase support for Le Pen in the coming months and years.

“There is obviously a worry about this,” she says.

“We are in a moment where there's a very potent message in America – as well as in Europe – about censorship, about anti democratic behaviour, about a sense that the system is out there to keep politicians like Le Pen from power, and that will feed populist support for her and for her party.“

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