Nobel Peace Prize: ‘No one fits the bill less than Donald Trump – yet he’s still the bookies favourite’
Israel and Hamas have agreed to the first phase of Donald Trump's peace plan, marking a major diplomatic breakthrough after two years of conflict. With the Nobel Peace Prize announcement due, is Trump's long-held ambition for the award finally within reach?
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In brief…
- Israel and Hamas have agreed to the first phase of Trump's peace plan, which includes releasing 48 Israeli hostages (20 alive) by Monday, a ceasefire, and partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Benjamin Netanyahu's government is meeting today to ratify the deal.
- Trump's unique approach has been credited with breaking the deadlock where Joe Biden and others failed, using Israel's growing isolation and pressure from regional partners to "strong arm" Netanyahu into accepting terms similar to Biden's previous proposal from 12 months ago.
- The prospect of winning a Nobel Peace Prize seems to be motivating Trump, although insiders have warned he doesn’t fit the bill. Jon Sopel says if Trump achieves a durable peace in the Middle East, he’ll buy the wrapping paper, the ribbons and pay for the postage.
What’s the story?
It’s been two years since the horrors in Israel and Gaza started to unfold. Two years of innocent Israeli civilians held hostage in Gaza tunnels, two years of intense death and destruction in Gaza - and finally, peace is on the table.
Israel and Hamas have agreed to the first phase of Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan, with Netanyahu’s government meeting today (9 October) to ratify the deal.
It is - like him or loathe him - a credit to Donald Trump, who may be the leader to achieve that which no Democrat or Republican, including Joe Biden, had previously managed to.
“If it does come into force, this is a major diplomatic victory for Trump,” Lewis Goodall says on The News Agents.
“There is a common consensus that Trump has handled this in a way which is very distinctly unique to him, and has handled Netanyahu in a way that only probably he would.”
The deal Trump proposes is not dissimilar to one Biden put forward 12 months ago - but since then, Israel has become more diplomatically isolated, the destruction in Gaza has worsened, and Netenyahu has been forced to apologise for targeting Hamas officials in Doha.
Jon Sopel says Trump has used these elements to “strong arm” Netanyahu, all while leaders of Turkey, Egypt and Qatar have been strong-arming Hamas.
“Timing in politics is critical,” Jon says.
The timing of this deal is especially key for a Nobel Prize-hungry Trump, with the 2025 recipients set to be announced a day after he announced the Gaza ceasefire.
“I don't want to minimize what is happening, but it probably isn't entirely a coincidence that on Monday, five members of the Nobel Peace Prize Committee sat down around a table in Oslo to decide who they should nominate for this year's Peace Prize.”
What does Trump’s peace deal involve - and how likely is it to last?
Trump’s deal would see the release of the 48 remaining Israeli hostages (with 20 who are thought to be alive returning by Monday), a ceasefire, and the partial withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
Under the terms of the plan Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza, and Hamas fighters must disarm and have no role in the governance of Gaza - after which they will be allowed to either stay in Gaza, or leave the strip safely.
Thousands of Palestinian prisoners will also be released under the deal - something that will cause “a lot of concern domestically,” Emily adds.
Far-right figures in Netanyhu’s government, including Israel’s national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, object to their release, arguing that they will return armed and ready to take revenge.
While there will be “disquiet about that disparity,” Emily says, “none of that matters today”.
“The only thing they have to start today is the process of a ceasefire and that 72 hour clock to release the hostages that are alive, then you get the prisoner release - and then you get all those other of the questions”.
Looking ahead towards Gaza’s future, the peace-deal would see an apolitical Palestinian committee, which Trump refers to as ‘the board of peace’, temporarily running the region, chaired by Trump with Tony Blair’s involvement. There will also be an economic plan aimed at rebuilding Gaza.
With all this in mind, even if the first steps in the plan go well, Lewis cautions that there are still “so many barriers to overcome.”
“Netanyahu is probably going to insist that every Hamas combatant who had anything to do or could be vaguely connected with October 7th will be hunted down.
“And how is the Palestinian authority going to work?” he says, foreseeing just some of those questions Emily pointed to.
“It's just so easy to see how each of these things can derail everything.”
Jon says people are right to remain “sceptical” about what comes after Monday, but adds it’s also “right to salute something of an achievement thus far.”
Will Trump get a Nobel Peace Prize?
Donald Trump has had a fixation on being awarded the world’s most prestigious award, the Nobel Peace Prize, and will no doubt be hoping that the manifestation of this peace deal is his ticket to victory.
The winner of the award will be announced on Friday (10 October) by the Norwegian Nobel committee members.
Trump and those around him have put enormous pressure on the committee to consider him for the prize - even though it technically isn’t possible, as nominations closed in January.
Emily points out that in Trump’s camp, the closing of a nomination will mean “absolutely sod all”.
Trump - insiders have pointed out - ‘does not align with the ideals of the Nobel Peace Prize and his divisive leadership style will harm his quest for the award’. They say the President's military posturing, US aid cuts and worldwide tariffs conflict with the spirit of international harmony
“On so many levels, there is no one who fits the bill less than Donald Trump in the entire world, and yet, you know, somehow he's still the bookies favourite,” Emily says.
Lewis says that while those things make it difficult to see why he should get the Nobel Peace Prize, at least Trump, contrary to what was largely believed, has not been an isolationist president.
It might be “vanity”, but the peace prize seems to be “genuinely motivating Trump” to get a deal done, he says.
And while Emily warns not to get over excited - “we're getting slightly ahead of things when he suddenly becomes like Mahatma Gandhi,” she says, Jon believes you need to “take what you can get”.
“If Donald Trump pulls off something like a durable peace in the Middle East, not only should he get it, I'll buy the wrapping paper, I'll buy the ribbons and pay for the postage for it to be sent from Oslo to the White House.”