Progressive or traditionalist: Which path will the next pope take?

Read time: 4 minutes

In brief:

• Following Pope Francis's death on Easter Monday, the Catholic Church faces a choice between electing a progressive successor who would continue his more open approach or returning to traditionalist values.
• Pope Francis was known for his progressive rhetoric on issues like climate change, immigration and homosexuality, but The News Agents say while he was “clever” in his words he never actually changed anything in the Church.
• The conclave that will elect the next pope consists of 135 eligible cardinals, 108 of whom were appointed by Francis himself, potentially influencing whether the Church continues in a progressive direction or sees conservative pushback.

What’s the story?

Following the death of Pope Francis on Easter Monday, the question of who will replace him as head of the Roman Catholic Church has come into razor-sharp focus.

Much of the conversation is around whether the 88-year-old’s successor will take a ‘progressive’ approach - viewing the Church as an institution that needs to modernise, or whether a ‘traditionalist’ pope will emerge, with Cardinals favouring a Pope who will double down on the Church’s conventional doctrines.

Pope Francis is often regarded as having leaned more progressive than traditionalist.

“He was really outspoken on climate change and on questions of immigration. He was really outspoken on Gaza. He was really outspoken on Ukraine,” Emily Maitlis says on The News Agents.

When asked by a journalist about gay people in the church he famously replied; “Who am I to judge?” - a non-committal, but significant departure from the Vatican’s usual rhetoric - and a stark contrast from his traditionalist predecessor Benedict XVI.

However, while his papacy represented a more compassionate tone, Pope Francis remained anchored to the Church’s core beliefs.

On abortion, he took a strong pro-life stance, and although women took on new roles in the Church during his tenure, there was no change to allow them to be priests.

“He always had this way of speaking, which suggested a more tolerant, slightly more open embrace of the Catholic Church, but never went so far as to change anything,” Emily adds.

Will the next pope be a progressive or a traditionalist?

Of the 250 cardinals, only 135 are eligible to select Pope Francis’s successor, as those over the age of 80 cannot take part in the conclave.

Pope Francis appointed 108 of those 135 - meaning that if he hand-picked people with a similar outlook to his own, it’s more probable that those making the decision will choose a progressive pope, although it’s not guaranteed.

“If 80% of the people now voting are in his image, then is it more likely that that progressive slant of Catholicism continues?” Emily asks.

“Having spoken to some people on the conservative wing of the Catholic Church, there's a frustration that they feel that he has set the path down for progressives to take over.”

Because Cardinals can’t vote for themselves and will re-vote until they reach a two-thirds majority, it’s rarely the person seen as the ‘favourite’ who comes out on top.

Jon Sopel refers to the process as the “alternative vote system” - where what you get is “not who people want the most, but who people mind the least.”

Whilst a progressive pope may seem the most likely, Emily suspects there could be an unexpected backlash.

“I think there will be something of a recognition that you don't necessarily want the person who's been before to dictate what happens next,” she says.

“I think there is a fight back amongst conservatives in the Catholic church now to say; ‘Well, hang on, let's just reset the parameters of where this was going’.”

What’s The News Agents’ take?

The late pope, Emily notes, was careful in his slow approach to liberalism.

“Pope Francis was extremely clever with words, at being just ambiguous enough to ignite discussion on some of the most controversial issues, without actually changing anything or suggesting they should change,” she says.

A good example with this was his approach to women in the church - while he never questioned the church’s ban on the ordination of women, he made it so that women could take on more roles in the Vatican.

“In other words, they were all around and they were part of the work of the church, but he didn't actually change how things stood.”

Unlike popes before him, Pope Francis was seen as more of a “political figure,” Emily says.

“He dabbled in these incredibly controversial issues and gave you the sense that he would like the church to change things, but never actually nailed that on.”

But politics today is ruled by Donald Trump, who has his own agenda. And whilst Trump can’t control the conclave vote, could his looming presence in the world impact it?

“It's not that Trump is literally going to have any say in this. Of course, he isn't,” Emily says.

“But is there a more dominant strain of conservatism in the world now that sees itself as a corrective force to everything that's gotten out of control, and is that going to somehow become salient in the next choice of Pope?”

Jon adds; “voting cardinals cannot be unaware of the cultural wars that are raging around the world - be it DEI or anything else.”

“The question remains of whether that has any bearing in the shape of a new pope that will emerge,” he says.

“Will it be a new pope that is sympathetic to the conservative backlash, or will the Catholic Church continue to be a bulwark that says; ‘Hang on, we're for a slightly different type of society’.”

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