Reform’s Makerfield failure: Why Burnham’s win is such bad news for Nigel Farage

What’s the story?

In the end, it wasn't close at all.

Andy Burnham won the Makerfield by-election with a 55% vote share for Labour, despite what seemed like stiff competition from Robert Kenyon of Reform UK, who hoped his 'local lad' status would distract voters from misogynistic comments made about women in his recent past.

Kenyon claimed 35%, with Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain polling 7% to place third.

In his victory speech, Burnham described his win as a "turning point" for Labour, making it seem ever more likely that his first priority won't be to fill potholes on the streets of Makerfield, but to fill Keir Starmer's place in 10 Downing Street.

"Everyone knows Andy Burnham ran a campaign, which was basically a hostile takeover of the Labour Party in plain sight," says Lewis Goodall.

"It was a frame by frame, slow motion coup."

"None of his signs had Labour on it, it was 'vote Andy', and he was saying he is going to change the Labour Party, and is coming for Keir Starmer."

Lewis says one of Reform's biggest mistakes in its Makerfield campaign was trying to warn off potential Labour voters by suggesting exactly this, that Burnham was using the by-election as a stepping stone into the job he's always wanted.

"Makerfield people have gone: 'Yeah, fantastic!"," he adds.

"They want him to actually use us as a stepping stone to get rid of Keir."

'Clouds are gathering over Reform'

Nigel Farage has said he is "disappointed" in the Makerfield result, and that the 16,000 Kenyon received fell short of the 18,000 he had hoped for.

“What do you want?" He asked the 3,111 people who voted for Rupert Lowe's Restore party.

"We're the challenger party, I would urge you to think again."

Jon Sopel says he sounded like he was telling off "naughty boys and girls", but is the pressure getting to the once seemingly unstoppable Clacton MP?

"Last night genuinely was Reform's worst night since the general election," says Lewis.

"Not only did their percentage of vote share not go up virtually at all in Makerfield, it also showed that Restore – while they're still a pretty fringe force – they are real, they're there, and they're affecting the kind of calculus and alchemy of politics."

Emily Maitlis says Restore Britain’s 7% of the vote share shows the one party it is a danger to, is Reform UK.

Reform also lost to the Tories in Aberdeen South, which Lewis says is likely due to a hard push from Kemi Badenoch on maintaining the UK’s oil and gas industry, which employs an estimated 13% of the city's population.

"Farage has been saying that the Tory party is dead," Lewis says.

"Well, it ain't dead yet, it's still got some life in it."

These by-election losses for Reform add more pressure on Farage himself, who has still not escaped scrutiny over the £5 million donation from a crypto billionaire, which continues to dog him, and his MPs at almost every encounter with the press.

"There are various little clouds gathered over Reform," Jon says.

"They have gathered in the past few months, which I think are really serious."

What now for Labour, Burnham and Starmer?

Following Burnham's decisive win, Keir Starmer has claimed the Makerfield result as a victory for Labour, and said "the tide is turning on Reform", and that it cannot win by-elections.

"There is an irony here, which is that Keir Starmer might be right about Reform coming off the top of their heights, just at the point where he won't be around to see it," says Emily Maitlis.

Reportedly more than 100 MPs have now called for Starmer to step down from his role as Prime Minister.

"The movement is now properly behind Burnham, and part of it, is just the way that he delivered this result, not just the numbers, but the sort of normalcy," Emily adds.

"The first thing he said when people tried to stop him after the result was if he was going to challenge Keir Starmer, was 'No, actually, I'm going to go for a beer'.

"I cannot imagine a world in which that was Starmer's line after a by-election win of any kind."

But a man cannot rule on vibes and "normalcy" alone.

"He might look like the saviour of the Labour Party and this government, but there are still huge unanswered questions about what his policies would be, what he would do, what the shape of the government would be," says Jon.

Burnham will now be sworn in as an MP in the House of Commons, with some predicting he might launch his leadership bid immediately. The News Agents believe he will wait a little longer before making a move for the top spot.

"Team Burnham's ideal timetable would be for him to actually assume office in September," says Lewis.

"He's been out of parliament for 10 years.

"He has got the momentum, but about a quarter of the parliamentary party don't really know him."

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