Russia has 'appetite for revenge' after Ukraine moves across border, expert warns

In brief...

• Ukrainian forces advanced up to 30 km into Russian territory, marking the first significant incursion in that direction since the war began.
• Ukraine's strategy may aim to relieve pressure on the Donbas region and divert Russian forces, though the deeper incursion may strain Ukraine's already stretched military.
• Future outlook for the region remains uncertain, with ongoing stalemate expected and significant potential consequences from the upcoming US election on international support for Ukraine.

The status quo has changed ever so slightly in the Russia / Ukraine war over the past week.

For the first time in two and half years of the ongoing invasion, Ukraine forces have moved inside Russia, in a stark reversal of roles.

Ukraine forces have advanced up to 30 km into Russian territory, in the most significant incursion since the war began from Ukraine troops.

Russian president Vladimir Putin has promised to “kick the enemy out" of the Kursk region, and it's estimated that 11,000 people have been evacuated from the neighbouring Belgorod region.

It was a move which caught even experts on the war by surprise.

"I was amongst many of those who were reliably telling people Ukraine doesn't really have an offensive option," Shashank Joshi, defence editor at The Spectator, tells Jon Sopel and Lewis Goodall on an episode of The News Agents.

"I admit I have some egg on my face, because I certainly didn't anticipate they'd succeed In finding a weak spot in the Russian lines, or that they would achieve this incredible degree of surprise, which, of course, is very hard to achieve these days in wars."

This, he adds, is unusual because of high-tech drone technology, surveillance and satellite coverage available today to armies across the world.

He suggests Ukraine may have used warfare jammers to overwhelm drone signals, and "blinded" the Russians in order to make its advance.

Why did Ukraine move into Russian territory?

After two and a half years of conflict, Joshi says the war is mostly at stalemate, although Russia's "substantial gains" in the Donbas region may have been one of the reasons Ukraine made its move.

"In Donbas, Ukraine's army was in a pretty bad place, very, very under strength and lacking in ammunition. So this is a way of saying, ‘actually, we have the initiative as well’," he says.

"I think the second point of this is also presumably to draw Russian forces, their reserves, away from Donbas, where Ukraine's army is under such pressure, and pull them away into Russia itself, thereby easing the pressure on the frontline. I think it's too early to say whether that succeeded."

He adds, however, the deeper into Russia Ukraine troops move, the more support it will need and the larger an operation it could become for an already over-stretched army.

President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the people of Ukraine on Saturday, saying in an address: "Ukraine is proving that it can indeed restore justice and ensure the necessary pressure on the aggressor."

None of this will go down well in Russia, or with its leader President Vladimir Putin.

“Humiliated” is the word Shashank Joshi uses for its position right now.

"There's going to be a strong appetite for revenge. Russia is going to feel very humiliated.

And as Ukraine troops have pushed towards the Kursk nuclear power plant, a fire has also broken out at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine, which is under Russian occupation.

Joshi describes this as "interesting optics", but stops short of claiming this was a direct warning from Russia following Ukraine's advance beyond its borders.

"There are certainly Ukrainians worried about what this might mean in terms of Russian missile targeting," he continues, suggesting it may be Ukrainian prisoners who feel the brunt of Russia's backlash.

"I have to say that in terms of brutality, the treatment of prisoners of war inside Russia, the treatment of the people caught, I can't imagine it's going to be very pleasant indeed.

"I think it's pretty nasty at the best of times, but there's going to be a real sense of Russian bitterness, vengefulness that I think we see after this."

He adds that the overwhelming support for Ukraine from Western Europe and beyond could lead some senior Russians to consider Ukraine's actions a "NATO sponsored operation", although there is nothing to suggest anyone outside of Ukraine was aware of Zelensky's plans.

Restrictions have been lifted on arms supplied by the UK and other countries, and while they will not permit overseas supplied missiles to be fired deep into Russia, but there is a different set of rules for conflict on the borders.

How does the Ukraine / Russia war end?

Joshi, unfortunately, doesn't see an end to the conflict any time soon.

"I don't anticipate any knockout blows. That's often not how wars work at this stage," he says.

"I think the war is in an eroding stalemate that has been moving against Ukraine tactically, but with no real risk of a sudden collapse in Ukrainian lines, just a steady loss of territory."

He suggests in the coming year, Russia may claim a little more territory, while it's likely to see further Ukraine attacks inside Russia.

And while it might seemingly make sense to attempt to forge a deal between the two countries now, to end the stalemated conflict, Russia's "unrealistic demands" make this an impossibility.

Joshi says he is "pretty gloomy" about any suggestion the war can end with a diplomatic deal.

The biggest shake-up on the horizon, he says, is the upcoming US election, and whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump becomes the US president.

If Trump emerges victorious, the likelihood of cutting off aid to Ukraine becomes a "very, very real one", which a Harris administration would be likely to "stay the course" with support for Ukraine.

"I think the results of the election really are very consequential indeed," he adds.

Listen in full on The News Agents.