‘Some people are angry at Starmer, some are just laughing at him’

Read time: 3 minutes

In brief:

• Labour MPs are openly discussing ousting Starmer if upcoming May local elections go poorly, with polling showing Labour's vote share in Wales has collapsed to just 14% while Reform UK has surged to 29%.
• Starmer's approval rating sits at -46, putting him behind other party leaders, with public sentiment shifting from indifference to genuine frustration and mockery, particularly after the winter fuel payment cuts.
• Andy Burnham emerges as the only viable replacement, given his popularity and distance from the current government, though any leadership change risks benefiting Reform amid public frustration with political instability.

What’s the story?

Keir Starmer may not survive two years at the head of government if May’s elections go as badly as polls predict.

Several Labour MPs have publicly warned that the PM could face being ousted next year, with Richard Burgon, MP for Leeds East, saying it's “inevitable” that the Prime Minister would have to leave No. 10 if next year’s results are a “complete disaster” for Labour.

Polling in Wales shows a particularly dire result on the cards for Labour, with their predicated vote share for the Senedd now at 14% and only a quarter (27%) of those who voted for Labour at the 2024 general election now saying they will back the party at the next Senedd election, a YouGov poll shows.

The results are a huge blow to the party, who have led every Cardiff Bay government since devolution in 1999.

The same polling shows Reform UK gaining 29% of the vote share, putting them neck and neck with Plaid Cymru (30%).

If Wales is reflective of how voting across the UK will pan out in May’s local elections, the ballot has the potential to be extremely damaging for Keir Starmer.

What’s the public feeling like towards Starmer personally?

“Keir Starmer has never been a popular political figure, even when he won the election,” Lewis Goodall points out.

At the time of the 2024 general election, his reception was lukewarm, with the public largely focussed on the primary goal of getting the Tories out, more so than getting Labour in.

But feeling towards him is “definitely getting worse”, Tryl, says, adding that Starmer’s approval rating is -46 currently, putting him behind Kemi Badenoch, Ed Davey and Nigel Farage.

Public sentiment towards the Starmer changed last summer from a feeling of ‘meh’ to a feeling of genuine frustration, when he made the decision to cut winter fuel payments, reaching what Tryl describes as a “danger point” for the PM. “When I ask about how Starmer is doing, it's not just anger, you get some people laughing.

“That is the stage it got to at the end of Johnson, and the stage it got to at the end of Sunak as well. It’s that stage when people start to see him as hapless,” Tryl says.

Starmer out, Andy Burnham in?

Lewis says that until recently, he believed that removing Starmer would be counterproductive for the party, because whilst imperfect, at least they project stability - something the public craved after the Tories endless swapping of leaders, which screamed “incompetence.”

“The conversation among Labour MPs – who I think largely shared that analysis, even though there's not a lot of love for Starmer – feels like it is starting to turn, with the calculus on replacing him being; ‘yeah, that would look bad, but actually Starmer is becoming so unpopular that it would be better than sticking with him’,” Lewis explains.

The only person tipped to be in a position to take Starmer’s place, if he were to be ousted, is Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham.

“He's the one guy who not only is reasonably popular in the country, but also could genuinely come in and go; ‘I'm a clean skin I've had nothing to do with this government’,” Lewis says.

In Manchester, Labour MP Andrew Gwyn, is potentially stepping down for health reasons, which would free up a seat for a by-election, but Starmer would need to give Burnham the go ahead to do so.

“He might as well say; ‘Hey, Andy, come and have my job’,’” Lewis says.

“Burnham is the one person who I think could win a by-election, he’s genuinely popular,” Tryl says.

But, he warns, the biggest beneficiary of political chaos will be Reform, and that is the big risk Labour would take if they were to oust Starmer.

“People will think, as they expressed about Rayner’s departure when we spoke to them; ‘Oh, look, the Tories chopped and changed all the time. Labour is now doing the same. The system doesn't work’.

“‘Even if I'm worried Reform is untested, they can't be as bad as those other two. I may as well try it’,” Tryl says.

Tryl believes replacing Starmer isn’t a question of who can lead Labour, but of who can stop the growing popularity of Nigel Farage.

“I think that's an interesting test. Is Burnham the person who can take on Reform?,” he says.

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