Starmer’s big mistake: Has the PM lost support from his MPs for good?

Read time: 5 mins

In brief…

• The government has changed its proposals to changes in PIP payments, following rebellion from its own MPs who pledged to vote against their own party in a commons vote.
• Journalist and Starmer biographer Tom Baldwin tells The News Agents that most of the Starmer backlash in the press is due to him focusing on “boring” politics, instead of headlines.
• The News Agents say that the PM may have underestimated the power of backbenchers in the social media age, which could prove a long term problem for Downing Street.

What’s the story?

MPs will head to the House of Commons this week to vote on Keir Starmer's welfare reforms – but there's a lot more at stake than the future of Personal Independence Payments (PIP).

For Prime Minister Keir Starmer, it will be a test of his position and government, with many of his own MPs still intent on voting against the party and changes seen by many as taking critical financial support from people in need, despite amendments being made.

Jon Sopel says there is a feeling inside the Labour Party that Starmer hasn’t done the “retail politics” to win Labour MPs to his wider cause since coming to power, so when situations such as welfare reform arise, he will have their support.

Some Labour MPs say, after a year in Downing Street, they have not met or spoken with the PM.

At least 120 Labour MPs were initially planning to vote against the policy.

Key figures in the party, such as Sadiq Khan and Andy Burnham, have said the bill is still not fit for purpose.

“This whole episode has raised much bigger questions about who Keir Starmer is, what the people around him are like, whether he's delivering, whether they know what they're trying to do in Downing Street,” says Jon.

So, what is Keir Starmer trying to achieve?

Journalist Tom Baldwin knows Starmer well. He stops short of calling himself a friend of the PM, but having worked as a Labour Party advisor, and as his biographer, he has inside knowledge of how the PM works.

“There is something about Keir himself which is hard to grasp, and I've struggled with this as his biographer, in that he doesn't like to put all of himself out there,” Baldwin tells The News Agents.

“He does have really strong values and emotions, and through his life, he's buttoned them up.”

Baldwin says the current welfare “mess” in the Labour Party is due to it pushing the projected saving of £5 billion, making MPs and the public alike believe this is a cost-cutting exercise, not real reform.

He praises Starmer for being able to revise his plans after challenges from Labour MPs, saying he has introduced a sense of “grown-up” political leadership to the House of Commons.

“If you make mistakes, take a step backwards, and then a step forward – that is the Keir Starmer I know,” Baldwin says.

“The idea that he comes in on July 5 last year and says he knows the answer to everything, has one big idea, and will never apologise for anything, because he's never going to get anything wrong – I think that's hokum.”

He believes much of the criticism of Starmer in the media, and his perceived lack of vision for this Labour government is because the PM is focused on everything but making headlines.

“I think there's a plan there – it's just not very exciting for journalists to cover,” he says.

“We're addicted to this drama and hyperbole and big ideas, when good politics could actually be about really boring things like getting the number of small boats down, or processing a number of claims.

“What will work is to show that slowly but surely, you can make things better, and treat people as grown ups, because we've got a grown up Prime Minister who – for me – is our best chance for better politics in this country.”

What’s The News Agents’ take?

There is a disconnect between Keir Starmer and his cabinet, and the backbenchers in the House of Commons, The News Agents say.

Emily Maitlis says many believe those in Starmer’s top team are not “reaching outwards” to its many MPs, and some are now realising they can make their own mark on politics, without allying to the man at the top.

“Labour’s power structure isn't recognising the power that now many individual MPs hold, and that they can do their own thing on social media,” Emily says.

“They can do their own thing as constituency MPs. They can make their own mark individually – and with their own voters – without necessarily having to show loyalty to Keir Starmer.

“And if they think that he's not in the same place as their voters, as their constituents, then they won't align themselves with him.”

Jon adds seemingly isolating some of these backbenchers could be a big mistake for the government.

“Every Prime Minister tends to take the view that those people who sit on the back benches are there as lobby fodder,” he says.

“They are there to walk through the lobbies and take their marching orders, depending on how the whips have told them how to vote.

“That's the perception that they've always had. But the way you handle those people differs.”

He adds that the biggest concern now, with potential rebellion over welfare reform still casting a shadow of Starmer and his front bench, is how early he has potentially lost control of his backbenchers.

“They’ll get a taste for this thing,” Jon says.

“And I think it does represent a real challenge to Keir Starmer, because what if there are other important reforms, maybe unpopular, that he wants to do in future, how on earth does he secure a majority?”

Listen to the latest episode of The News Agents.