The Iran War: How screwed are we, really?

What’s the story?

There has been little in the way of positive outcomes from the US and Israel’s war in Iran, since the invasion began on 28 February 2026.

Airstrikes have intensified across the Middle East, with residential buildings in Beirut being bombed by Israel, while Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, restricting oil supply to much of the world and sending fuel prices soaring.

And confidence in Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu’s joint effort to rid Iran of its Islamic regime leadership is at an all-time low after Trump claimed he was not informed of Israel’s attack on the South Pars Gas Field.

It’s where 20% of the world’s global natural gas supplies come from, and sent fuel costs spiralling once again.

Damage to the South Pars Gas Field is a big deal, and we could all be paying for it – quite literally – for up to a decade.

“Energy experts are warning that this stuff cannot be corrected overnight, because once it's destroyed, it will take years to rebuild,” says Lewis Goodall.

“So we could see energy price inflation, which could rock the world economy, not just for weeks or months, but years to come.”

The people who will be hit hardest, of course, will be everyday consumers.

“The effects are going to be profound,” says Jon Sopel.

“Whether it be on interest rates, people's mortgages, whether you're able to fill up your car at the petrol station – if there is any petrol.”

Will there be energy rationing in the UK?

In almost a month of the war in Iran, fuel prices have risen the world over, but if military action continues to escalate, the impacts of the US and Israel invasion will do likewise.

“Energy conservation measures in the UK seem quite historical and unlikely – until this week,” says Lewis.

“The British government might end up having to look at rationing for petrol and for energy as well for consumers and businesses, which is not something that we have seen since the days of Ted Heath.”

Emily Maitlis says the mounting situation is reminiscent of the early days of the Covid 19 pandemic, as we watch events take place on the other side of the globe, before creeping closer to home.

“I’ve got muscle memory from covid kicking in, and the beginning of the lockdown,” Emily says.

She adds seeing certain parts of the world already introducing energy measures is reminiscent of watching lockdowns start across the world and thinking of them as something happening “far away”.

“We assume that Europe is slightly insulated, that we're a bit quieter, a bit further away, a bit duller, that we'll be okay,” Emily says.

“Actually, this stuff creeps closer quite quickly.”

Lewis says the UK government is likely to face increased pressure from political rivals to drill for oil in the North Sea, where there are reserves close to home, and believes this will become a bigger political issue in coming weeks.

“Plenty of people will be asking why we are not exploiting every last drop of oil and gas we can,” he says.

“Not least because we can generate tax revenues from it which we could invest in renewable energy.”

So, is Trump likely to de-escalate?

To avoid the possibility of energy rationing or restrictions, then strikes on Iran – and its counter strikes on Israel and other countries – would need to end.

Lewis says this is highly unlikely to happen.

“America thought this was going to be like Venezuela, that you can remove the top, and coerce someone more junior to do what you want,” he says.

“What scares me about the point we're in now, is that both sides have every incentive to escalate and intensify the war further.”

Lewis says for Iran, the war is considered a fight for its very survival, and for America there is no guarantee, if it de-escalates, that the Strait of Hormuz would be re-opened, which could leave Trump humiliated.

Jon says the question for America, and the world, is what victory in Iran would look like.

“Presumably, it would mean that the Strait of Hormuz is open,” he says.

“Oil would be moving freely, and there would be no further attacks on Gulf installations of Qatar, of UAE, of Saudi Arabia – which is not the position right now.”

Emily’s message to Pete Hegseth and the Trump administration

If you listen to certain members of Trump’s inner circle, you’d think the war was already won and the world should be grateful to the president.

Pete Hegseth, secretary of ‘war’ has said that “ungrateful allies in Europe” should be thanking Donald Trump for his action in Iran.

Emily has a message for Hegseth.

“On behalf of all those ungrateful allies, I’d like to offer Pete Hegseth a thank you,” Emily says.

“Thank you for getting us into a bloody mess.”

She says the days of politicians being able to bluff their way out of bad situations with a snappy soundbite are long gone.

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