The News Agents election analysis: 'Bloody hell, what a weird night'

In brief...

• Labour wins by a landslide, ending 14 years of Conservative rule, with the SNP almost wiped out and Reform UK emerging as a new political player.
• The UK possibly shifts to a four-party system, with Labour facing significant challenges from Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Reform UK.
• Conservative leadership is in turmoil with potential new leaders emerging and a shift further to the right, while voter turnout has significantly decreased to 59.5%.

Well, it’s over. After 14 years of Conservative government, the Tories have lost power. Labour will take control.

The News Agents have been up all night covering the action from the voting booths, as the Tories suffer historic losses, Labour score a staggering number of seats, the SNP is all-but wiped out and Reform UK become a new player on the UK’s political landscape.

But what does it all mean? Can Labour rule with confidence, or do they still need to sleep with one eye open. The News Agents have got all the insight you need. Let’s dive in.

Jon Sopel says there are three big headlines from the night – the Labour landslide, the success of Reform UK and the “disaster” for the Scottish National Party (SNP).

There might be a fourth, he adds, and that would simply be: “Bloody hell, what a weird, weird election with all sorts of odd results.”

The UK is now looking at a four-party system, with Labour now facing Conservatives, the strongest Liberal Democrats results in years and the challenge from Reform UK.

Goodall describes the Scottish result – where the SNP won just six seats – as Labour “completely revived” north of the border, although does not believe the campaign for independence is dead in the water just yet.

“Some of the swings that we're seeing in this election, away from the Conservative Party towards Labour and the Lib Dems in Target seats are astounding,” he adds.

“We are clearly seeing something we talked about in terms of tactical voting. We are seeing huge tactical voting going the Lib Dems way, and they have been extremely effective in turning out their target seats. In particular across the southeast of England in former Conservative strongholds.”

While Reform UK only claimed four seats in the House of Commons, the right-wing party scored impressive numbers of votes across the country, outperforming the Tories and placing second in many constituencies.

Maitlis describes the party’s success as “phenomenal”.

“Maybe Keir actually has to be grown up about immigration,” she says.

“And maybe the way to solve the problem is not to say we're going to beat it, we're going to send immigrants away, it's to say: ‘Okay, if you want to have the honest conversation about it, we need people to come in and do the jobs that we cannot fill ourselves.’”

Sopel says it means the issue of immigration “has to be taken really seriously” if Labour is going to “see off the threat” of Nigel Farage and his new MPs.

A new political landscape for the UK

This is no longer a two-party country – for now. The Liberal Democrats now have a solid presence in the House of Commons, and the success of Reform UK, taking votes away from both Conservative and Labour candidates, suggest a change in the way many people in the UK think about the country and their politics.

It’s a situation Goodall describes as a political “smorgasbord”, with Labour facing different challengers in constituencies across Britain.

“Back in the old days, it was very clear – Labour if they won a big majority? The Conservatives won second place in most of the seats that they held, so they knew who their opponent was,” he says.

“Now you have different opponents in different places, and that requires a refracted politics, a different sort of politics in order to navigate through it and can Keir Starmer do it? Who knows.”

What next for the Tories?

After such a monumental defeat, it’s almost impossible for Rishi Sunak to continue as leader, meaning a new name needs to fill that slot.

Maitlis says both Kemi Badenoch and Suella Braverman already dipped their toes into a leadership contest with their victory speeches after winning their seats. Badenoch “graciously” congratulated Keir Starmer on victory, while Braverman attacked her own party for “letting down” voters – a party where she was the Home Secretary.

Goodall reckons Robert Jenrick and James Cleverly are also potential contenders, with all of these names benefitting now from the smaller number of sitting MPs the Tories now have.

“With a parliamentary party that small each individual MP becomes more important,” he says, although he adds that the reduced party numbers could also pose problems over the next five years.

“We now know if there's around 120 Conservative MPs, you're only going to need 20 MPs or so to trigger a leadership election in the parliamentary party, so it's bound to be unstable.”

And, with Nigel Farage “breathing down their neck”, it’s likely to be the Conservative candidate who pushes the party hardest towards the right-wing that wins the next leadership race.

“We know that the Tory party membership moves further and further to the right,” Goodall adds.“I can't see a world where the candidate who is farthest to the right, whoever that is, does not win.”

This, Maitlis predicts, could lead to more division within the party and even a split between those who will follow further towards the right, and those who refuse.

But despite the highs and lows of the night – and what’s to come over the next few days and five years, The News Agents also felt saddened by a drop in voter turnout.

Just 59.5% of people voted in the 2024 election, a drop from the 67.3% who visited the polling stations in 2019.

“I was really hoping that would be wrong, I wanted democracy to be flourishing,” says Emily.

“It always makes you feel great as a country, when lots of people vote. However they vote, you want them all to go out and vote.”

“I thought we were noticing there was a huge number of young voters coming out for the first time,” adds Sopel.

“Maybe that didn't happen, or maybe it just was offset by people who have always voted and didn't bother. “

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