The rise of violence in US politics: 'All roads lead back to Trump'

In brief...

• Thomas Matthew Crooks, attempted to assassinate Donald Trump at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, highlighting ongoing political violence in the US.
• US political history includes significant violent incidents, such as the assassinations of Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy, and recent attacks on politicians like Gabby Giffords, Steve Scalise, Gretchen Whitmer, and Nancy Pelosi.
• Amid increasing political aggression, commentators urge Donald Trump to promote calm and reject violence, potentially benefiting his political campaign and addressing the country's polarised climate.

Violence reared its ugly head in US politics this weekend when registered Republican Party member Thomas Matthew Crooks attempted to assassinate Donald Trump with a semi-automatic AR-15 rifle during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.

Trump sustained an injury to his ear, saying after the attack: "I’m supposed to be dead, I’m not supposed to be here."

American politics has long been marred by violence against its politicians and presidents.

Abraham Lincoln was assassinated while he watched a play in Washington in 1865. John F Kennedy, perhaps the most famous victim of US political violence, was fatally shot while riding in a presidential motorcade in Dallas in 1963. His brother Robert was murdered by a gunman in a hotel in Los Angeles, California in 1968.

But such acts of violence are not just consigned to the history books, with more recent acts of violence having been carried out against prominent names in US politics in more recent times.

• 2011: Then-Democrat member of the House of Representatives for Arizona's 8th district, Gabby Giffords, was shot in the head during a domestic terror incident in a Tucson parking lot. 18 people were shot, six fatally, and the resulting injury forced her to quit politics.
• 2017: Republican House majority leader Steve Scalise was among the injured during a mass-shooting at a basketball practice session in Alexandria, Virginia, along with six others.
• 2020: 13 men – linked with far-right paramilitary group the Wolverine Watchmen – were arrested on suspicion of planning to kidnap Democrat Michigan governor, Gretchen Whitmer.
• 2022: A far-right conspiracy theorist targeted Nancy Pelosi in a home invasion at her San Francisco residence, but she was in Washington at the time. Planning to kidnap the former Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, he instead inflicted serious injuries on her husband Paul Pelosi with a hammer.

And now, the target was turned on Trump, who himself mocked the attack on Pelosi to score political points during a rally in 2023.

"We’ll stand up to crazy Nancy Pelosi, who ruined San Francisco — how’s her husband doing, anybody know?” Trump said during an appearance in Anaheim, California.

"And she’s against building a wall at our border, even though she has a wall around her house — which obviously didn’t do a very good job."

"Trump himself has undermined when there has been violence against other people," says Lewis Goodall.

Although he's not the only one. Some Republicans have blamed recent comments by Joe Biden (he allegedly said "it's time to put Trump in a bullseye" on a private phone call with donors this month) for the Pennsylvania shooting.

"It's not to say that other politicians aren't also guilty of extremely high octane aggressive statements," Lewis adds.

"But if we're talking about the slow, inexorable path towards aggression that American politics has taken in recent years, if we're talking about how that is intimately connected with Democratic backsliding and the disintegration of democratic norms, all roads in the end – or many roads, at least – do lead back to Donald Trump."

Donald Trump has faced condemnation during his political career for his confrontational and aggressive comments, and was indicted in 2023 for his role in attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 election, which led to the 2021 Washington riots, where Republican protesters chanted "hang Mike Pence".

A witness in an investigation into the insurrection claimed Trump had said "something to the effect of, maybe Mr Pence should be hung".

The News Agents believe now is the time for Trump to change his approach, and call for his supporters to reject violence. This, they say, is not only needed for the country, but could benefit his hopes of returning to the White House after the November election.

"In an era where you have got extreme polarisation and the toxification of American politics, you need moves now to surely try to defuse things, to calm things," says Jon Sopel.

"I would have thought it would be in Donald Trump's best interest, I think it would be a brilliant campaign move now, to issue a call for calm and for respect, let this be settled at the ballot box.

"I think it would reach out across the aisle and help him demographically with those groups that have been resistant to going towards Donald Trump."

The alternative could be something much darker for the 'land of the free'.

"It feels as if we are only a few steps away from something really unraveling and political violence and usage on it," says Lewis.

"It's always been part of the American experience of the American political experience. It's always been present in the history of the American Republic."

"We forget how existential it felt after Kennedy's assassination, that the Genie had been let out of the bottle and wasn't going to go away.

"There is the danger that that dissent begins again, and so much now depends exactly on how Trump personally responds."

Listen to the discussion in full on The News Agents.