Tory identity problem: ‘Pitch yourself as Reform-lite, voters will go for the full-fat version’
As Kemi Badenoch attends her first party conference as Conservative leader, some voters still can’t even name her. But low recognition is the least of her problems. With the party still reeling from 14 years of chaos and defeat, which policies should the Tories be pursuing?
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In brief:
- Kemi Badenoch enters the Conservative conference largely unknown to voters (only 1 of 8 former Tory voters could name her), but her bigger challenge is overcoming the party's toxicity after 14 years of Conservative rule that included Brexit, partygate, and the mini-budget disaster.
- Badenoch is proposing hardline policies including leaving the ECHR, rowing back on Net Zero, and deporting 750,000 illegal immigrants over five years. Luke Tryl of More In Common polling warns this approach is "unusual" as these issues divide Tory voters down the middle.
- Tryl argues the Conservatives are making a mistake by copying Reform's policies and, warning that "if you're going to pitch yourself as 'Reform lite', those voters are just going to go for the full fat version anyway."
What’s the story?
“Can you name the leader of the Conservative party?”
That is the question a group of eight people in northeast Hertfordshire, who all voted Conservative up until the last election, were asked in a focus group last week.
Only one could answer “Kemi Badenoch.”
“The interesting thing with Kemi Badenoch is it's not that she's unpopular, particularly with voters, it's that they don't know who she is,” Luke Tryl of More In Common, who conducted the research, tells The News Agents.
This week the Tory leader will be trying to change that, as she kicks off the party’s conference in Manchester.
But the problem for Badenoch isn’t just her own obscurity, it’s her party’s toxicity, after 14 years of Tory-rule that included Brexit, partygate, the mini-budget and culminated in their crushing defeat in the 2024 general election.
As she enters party conference, it’s Kemi Badenoch’s moment to reposition the party. But the key question is whether Tory MPs and grassroot members want to see the Conservatives reassert their own identity, or become more like Reform.
“They're trying to find out in real time who they are and who their supporters, or putative supporters, want them to be. And I think that question is still unanswered,” Jon Sopel says.
What is the Tories approach?
Ahead of the conference, senior Tories have been proposing policies to try to make their stamp in the political landscape.
Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride has been trying to distance the party from the previous Tory government’s overspending, emphasising fiscal responsibility (the problem with that, of course, is that Labour won’t let anyone forget about the fiscal ‘black hole’ they inherited),
Kemi Badenoch has advocated leaving the ECHR, rowing back on Net Zero commitments, and the party is proposing to remove 750,000 illegal immigrants during a potential first parliament, that’s 150,000 per year.
But with the future direction of the Conservative party still very much in the air, Tryl believes it’s “unusual” that the leadership has decided to focus on issues that tend to split Tory voters down the middle - something the Tories can’t afford at the moment.
“Ordinarily in politics, you want to try and wedge your opponent. You don't want to try and wedge yourselves,” he says.
While the party are “staking out a bit of territory that may be different,” Jon believes they’re making some of the same old mistakes, for example, by putting a figure on the amount of people they aim to deport.
“How has giving numbers on migration worked for the Tories so far?” Jon asks..
“Every time they’ve set a number like that, it's led to failure and led to the emboldening of populist parties - Reform will probably be rubbing their hands at that.”
Should the Tories be chasing Reform?
Tryl says there is a significant group who have always wanted the Tory party to take a hot-blooded right-wing approach like Reform.
But as the Conservatives try to find their way, he believes they’re potentially at risk of falling into the trap of “thinking that X (Twitter) is Britain” and believing that “the loud voices, people who post online, are representative of right-wing views in general.”
The new climate and ECHR policies put forward by Badenoch mirror those of Reform, with the key difference being that Reform announced them first.
Tryl says the party's traditional strength lies in its diverse coalition, and that they should focus less on the voters who want to “burn the house down” and more on “institutional Conservatives”, that’s those who are right-wing but believe in institutions.
When he asks people in focus groups; what do the Conservative party look like at their best? Tryl says the answer is always; when they prioritise a strong and stable economy.
“Yet, we’re hearing very little on the economy from the Conservatives,” he says. “It seems instead to be chasing after those voters that they've lost to Reform - or the most vocal of those voters that they have lost to Reform.
“But simple electoral logic is, if you're going to pitch yourself as ‘Reform lite’, those voters are just going to go for the full fat version anyway,” he adds.
“The challenge going into this party conference for the Conservatives was to answer the question; ‘What is the point of the Conservatives in a world where you have Reform UK?’
“And I don't think anything that they've done thus far has answered that challenge.”