Was Trump’s Ukraine peace plan written by Putin?
A US-brokered peace-deal between Russia and Ukraine is moving forward, but there have been questions over its initial leniency towards Vladimir Putin’s demands and where it originated.
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In brief…
- Details of Donald Trump’s peace plan for Russia and Ukraine have been revealed – and its early draft heavily favours Vladimir Putin, echoing many of his long-term demands over military capacity and control of land.
- The “clunky English” in the drafting has led some to believe it was written in Russian and then translated, but The News Agents say Putin’s government wouldn’t make a mistake like that.
- Jon Sopel and Lewis Goodall say Trump approaches world peace like a property developer, and believes the weak must give in to stronger opponents.
What’s the story?
Details of Donald Trump’s peace plan for Russia and Ukraine have emerged – and it’s great news for Vladimir Putin.
The 28-point plan has been criticised by Zelensky, and many others, as favouring Russia – giving Putin many of the concessions he sought from the initial invasion in 2022.
This included Ukraine agreeing to not join NATO, reducing its military capacity, and international recognition of Donetsk, Luhansk and the southern Crimea peninsula – all of which have been seized by Russian forces.
It was initially described by some US senators as a Russian “wish list”, which was denied by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
“These are very, very tough pills for Kiev to swallow,” says Lewis Goodall.
“This is what Putin has wanted from the very beginning.”
Jon Sopel says there are key military advantages to Russia taking such crucial chunks of Ukrainian land.
“Part of the reason the Russian operation failed in 2022, aside from the chaos after the invasion, was that it just didn't have enough forces in position to take Kyiv,” Jon says.
“The thinking is that if you have the Donbas as well, then you're within striking distance of Kyiv, and it will be a much easier operation.
“So what you have is you have a Ukrainian military that is halved in size, Russian troops in the Donbas and no international peacekeeping troops maintaining the ceasefire.”
What are the peace treaty translation rumours?
Since details of Trump’s peace plan were revealed, there have also been claims made that it was originally written in Russian, and translated into English, leading to questions about where it originated.
“Some of what was released was in English – and rather clunky English at that,” says Jon.
“That led to various people to put it into various AI systems, which deduced that this was a document written in Russian and translated into English, giving vent to the idea that somehow this is a Russian peace plan which the Americans are passing off as their own.”
He says sources have told him that the situation is more complicated than that, and that if this had originated from inside Putin’s government, there would be no errors made.
“If this was a Russian Foreign Ministry document, there wouldn't be flaws in the English,” Jon says.
“It would be absolutely perfect. They're not clunky or clumsy in that way.
“But there is something very odd that has gone on in the drawing up of this peace plan, which seems to unbelievably favour Russia, where all the sacrifice is going to come from Ukraine, and Russia gives very little in return.”
Negotiations between the US and Ukraine have resulted in an “updated and refined” plan, but work will continue before the amended deal will be put before Russia.
What comes next for Russia, Ukraine – and Trump’s America?
The peace plan, negotiated by envoys and members of his top team, has been arranged in a “classically Trumpian way”, says Lewis Goodall.
And by that, he means that most of the people affected weren’t involved.
“There were no Ukrainians in the room, and no Europeans in the room either,” says Lewis.
“This is despite the fact that the Ukrainians are expected to live with it, and to some extent, the Europeans are being expected to financially enforce it.”
While the military and geographical elements of the deal are known, it is perhaps what is missing that is most important.
“We don't know what the business deals are,” Jon says.
“The European side wants to know who's going to get the rare-earth minerals, what the carve-up is going to be.
“Those things are very opaque at the moment, and this is where Europe feels so blindsided.”
Things may seem opaque for some countries affected by the deal, but for Donald Trump, things couldn’t be clearer.
“Trump has a property developer view of the world,” says Lewis.
“Ukraine's weak, and if you're weak, you get eaten. Russia's stronger – it's a bigger country, with more money, and more soldiers.
“Therefore you have to make a deal.”