What if David Miliband was elected Labour leader, not Ed Miliband?

Read time: 3 minutes

In brief:

• In 2010, Ed Miliband narrowly defeated his brother David to become the Labour Party leader, sparking speculation about how things might have been different had David won a few more votes.
• Some believe David would have been a stronger candidate, though both had their awkward moments.
• Lewis Goodall suggests that regardless of which Miliband brother led the party, the outcome of the 2015 general election would likely have been the same, due to external factors such as the financial crash and the Scottish referendum's impact.

How would things have turned out differently if Ed Miliband hadn’t beaten his older brother, David Miliband, to become leader of the Labour party?

That’s the question listener Matthew Swain in Malta asked for The News Agents’ ‘What If?’ Christmas specials - a series looking at political counterfactuals.

The two brothers went head-to-head in 2010 to become leader of the opposition, with Ed ultimately coming out on top, albeit a narrow win.

“It was such a fascinating period of this Cain and Abel struggle between two brothers,” Jon Sopel remembers.

If David had got only a handful more MPs on side, the two brothers’ stories could have turned out very differently. But, he didn’t, Jon believes, because he was too “hands off”.

“He was maybe a tiny bit too aloof, imperious and not speaking to enough people, schmoozing them, putting his arm around them and saying, ‘I really need your support’”.

“Something tells me that David Miliband would have resonated much stronger than his brother with voters,” listener Matthew believes.

This might seem the case in hindsight, especially because Ed Miliband is often remembered for his awkwardness.

The viral photograph of him eating a bacon sandwich that led to headlines like ‘Ed Miliband fails to look normal eating a bacon sandwich’ is, sadly for him, one of his most unforgettable moments.

But, Lewis urges people to remember that the reason people talked-up Ed in the first place is because David, although incredibly smart and accomplished, was also “robotic” and often seen as “difficult”.

“They've all got these weird moments of standing with inanimate objects,” Emily says, referring to the moment David was snapped awkwardly holding a banana at a Labour conference, no less weird than his brother’s bacon-gate moment.

This ‘what if’ question was one of our most asked by listeners, but Lewis thinks it’s “overblown”.

“I think this is one of the most overblown what-ifs of recent political history… I think things would have been exactly the same”.

This is in part due to both brothers’ political weaknesses, but more so because of external political factors at the time that Lewis believes would have led to the same outcome in the 2015 general election - a Conservative win and a Labour loss.

“The big driving factors of the 2015 general election were twofold; One was that the Labour Party was still very much associated with the financial crash, and David Miliband would have probably been even more associated with it, because he was more senior in the government”.

Second, was the Scottish referendum of 2014.

“I don't think there would have been any prospect with David Miliband leading that you still wouldn't have had the SNP winning 56 of 59 seats. David Cameron therefore would have always said, exactly as he did with Ed Miliband: ‘David Miliband will be in Alex Salmond's pockets. You need to vote Conservative in England’.

But, one thing that would have been very different, Jon says, is the Syria vote in 2013.

At the time Ed Miliband voted against the UK taking military action in Syria in the wake of Assad using chemical weapons against his own people.

This left the Obama administration “seething” with the Labour party, Jon says.

“The very most senior people in the Pentagon couldn't believe that the British Parliament had done the dirty on them and left them high and dry.”

Had it been the other brother leading Labour at the time, Jon says David would have absolutely voted in favour of the military action.

“I think he understood the American context. He was close to the Obama people.”

It’s an unusual circumstance - two brothers in opposition to become leader of the opposition. Come Christmas dinner, is politics left at the door?

“I haven't really heard either of them speak truly candidly about it, but I do believe that the rift is pretty permanent between the two of them,” Jon says.

Emily’s advice for anyone else facing sibling rivalry?

“Siblings, listen to this; It is not worth it. Look after your mothers”.