What is happening in the France? How the far-right could be on the verge of victory

In brief…

• One in three voters opted for Marine Le Pen’s hard-right National Rally in the first round of the French elections
• It brings the extremist party to the mainstream of French politics.
• There is another round still to come, but it could have “big ramifications”, The News Agents say

The French far-right are now on the verge of winning power in France after a successful first round in the country’s parliamentary elections.

Results from Sunday’s contest showed that one in three French voters opted for Marine le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party.

It puts 28-year-old party leader Jordan Bardella a step closer to becoming the country’s Prime Minister.

The News Agents take a look at what it means

“On every level, this is historic”, says Lewis Goodall.

There will be “big ramifications for the European project” and the Macron presidency.

While we’ve seen the growth of hard-right parties across Europe, Goodall argues it matters more in France and Germany than anywhere else

He says: “They are the motor of the EU. They are the anchor of the European project. They are the countries that have long pushed for EU integration, for further economic integration of the European continent.

“Both countries’ politics are becoming more and more unstable, less tethered and moored to the historic politics of the centre.”

And this will be a challenge Keir Starmer will have to deal with if Labour forms the next Government in Britain, Goodall adds.

For Jon Sopel, Reform UK’s Nigel Farage could be rubbing his hands with glee as this extreme wing of politics moves into the mainstream.

He says: “You can be sure that Reform are looking at RN and thinking ‘okay, we can just keep steadily increasing our support base.”

Goodall agrees that the trend of a more mainstream far-right could be a “glimmer” of the politics to come in the UK.

He says that while RN is hardline on immigration like the far-right in Britain, the difference is that the bedrock of its support comes from younger voters who have been “dogged by unemployment”.

What actually happened in the first round.

One in three voters threw their weight behind RN’s, with 33.1% of the popular vote being more than double the first round votes it achieved in the 2022 elections.

The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance, led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, trailed behind with 28% of the popular vote.

Worryingly for French President Emmanuel Macron, his centrist Together coalition came in at third, raking in 21%.

What is still to come?

There is still another round of voting to come on July 7 and the outcome is far from certain.

That gives hope to the left-wing coalition and the centrist alliance, who may do all they can by grouping together to stop the far-right from surging to power.

But Sopel notes that one of the old sayings about French politics has been that ”in the first round, you vote with your heart, and in the second round, you vote with your wallet or you vote with your head.”

So that means it is still all to play for next Sunday.

Listen to the latest episode of The News Agents podcast now.