What next for Israel and Iran: ‘Trump is trying to take advantage’
Israel strikes on Iran have reportedly killed nearly 80 people, and injured more than 300, as conflict between the two countries escalated to new levels this week. What’s going on – and what happens next?
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In brief…
- Israel claims it attacked military targets in Iran, in an escalation over claims it is developing nuclear weapons, with Iran saying civilians were killed in overnight strikes.
- Mark Urban, co-host of The Crime Agents podcast, tells The News Agents a new war could escalate, with Donald Trump also involved, having recently been involved in diplomatic negotiations over Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
- He accuses the US president of trying to “take advantage” of the situation, with Iran saying it blames America for the strike as much as it does Israel.
What’s the story?
Israel has bombed "dozens of military targets" in Iran, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatening further strikes on the country.
TV reports in Iran state that 78 people were killed, and 329 injured, with children allegedly among the dead.
The attack came after Iran was declared to be in breach of international nuclear agreements, with allegations of undeclared materials and a stockpile of enriched uranium in the country – which can be used to make fuel for reactors, but also weapons.
Netenyahu claims Iran is a threat to the "very survival" of Israel.
Israel claims Iran responded with a drone attack, most of which were “intercepted”.
Donald Trump has said if Iran does not make a deal to decrease its nuclear capabilities, it will face more "brutal" attacks.
Why now?
“Decades ago, Iran got nuclear power, and it started to enrich uranium. It started to do the sort of things that you need to do if you want to make nuclear weapons further down the line,” Mark Urban, co-host of The Crime Agents podcast, tells Lewis Goodall.
“They've always said they will retain control of their nuclear fuel cycle. At various times they've said they're not seeking nuclear weapons.”
Israel previously uncovered documents which showed Iran was planning to develop nuclear weapons, but this work ended in 2003. As yet, no evidence has been produced to show that it has restarted those efforts.
Urban says Iran’s intentions, and what Israel knows about the current status of its nuclear programme will be “interrogated extensively” in the coming days.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has stated explicitly that it aims to "eliminate" the state of Israel, and does accept its right to exist, in language Urban describes as "apocalyptic".
It has also built up various networks in the Middle East, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, which have been involved in direct conflict with Israel for decades.
Urban adds that while the two countries have not held back on their hatred for each other, this week's escalation is on a far greater, and more direct, level than ever seen before.
He believes Netenyahu has taken the opportunity to strike Iran now because of its weakened state – losing its support from Bashar al-Assad in Syria who was overthrown in 2024, on top of Israel's destruction of some of Iran's air-defence system.
Why is Donald Trump involved?
The US president had recently been engaged in diplomatic talks with Iran about depowering its nuclear capabilities.
Iran has said it holds the US equally responsible for the Israeli attack.
Urban says Trump's warnings to Iran may be either simple opportunism, or an attempt to get Iran back to the negotiating table – despite one of the Iranian negotiators being reportedly killed in Israel’s attack.
What next?
Urban says Israel's attack on Iran, while damaging for the country and the already deeply fractured relationship between the two states, is not enough to end Iran's potential goal of producing nuclear weapons. Several key sites in Iran, which would be crucial to making these, were not targeted in the strikes.
"Israel is prepared to continue it, but in the end, it is delaying, rather than comprehensively eliminating, the chance of Iran getting the bomb," Urban says.
"Unless Iran goes back into diplomacy, Israel may well take a step now, like ordering out the international inspectors, the Atomic Energy Authority, and they might go for broke."
He adds that both sides "held back" in their attack – but only to a "limited extent".
"Is that to open a window, as President Trump would like to get back into negotiation, or is it because they're still both trying to work out where on earth they stand now that this extraordinary step has been taken?" Urban asks.
"It could certainly escalate into a conflict that involves, for example, attacks on American forces in the Gulf Arab countries by Iran."
With America having evacuated its embassies ahead of Israel's attack, he says Iran has drawn the conclusion that Trump knew about Thursday night's strikes before they happened.
"He's now trying to take advantage of it, in which case they attack American facilities in the region," Urban says.
"America could then get drawn in, and you do have a wider conflict."