Will Donald Trump pull the US out of NATO?

Read time: 6 minutes

In brief:

• Donald Trump has paused military aid and intelligence sharing to Ukraine, raising concerns about the future of US support for Ukraine's defence against Russia.
• Trump's actions have sparked fears that he may pull the US out of NATO, with leaders such as Germany's Friedrich Merz suggesting Europe needs to achieve independence from the US for security.
• European responses vary, with Germany preparing for potential NATO collapse while Keir Starmer maintains that the US remains a reliable ally while increasing UK defence spending.

What’s the story?

Donald Trump does what Donald Trump wants.

And right now what Donald Trump wants is to stop funding Ukraine’s defence against Russia’s illegal invasion, three years after the war started - which could be catastrophic for President Zelensky’s war efforts.

Under Joe Biden’s administration, the US was the single biggest donor in military aid to Ukraine - but Trump’s in charge now, and he’s turned off the taps, pausing all military aid to the country and announcing that the US will stop intelligence-sharing.

The u-turn on America’s willingness to support Ukraine’s war, and stand shoulder-to-shoulder with its traditional allies, has left people questioning whether Europe can still rely on America as an ally, and whether Trump might go one further and pull the US out of NATO.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) was set up in the aftermath of World War Two as a collective security system, with independent member states agreeing in Article 5 of the treaty to protect each other against attacks from third parties.

It has 32 members, including the UK, the US, Canada, France and Germany.

Elon Musk, often found at Trump’s side, has publicly called for the US to leave NATO, as has Republican Senator Mike Lee, who said “We’ve got to shed the assumption that we’d be helpless without NATO.”

European leaders are now facing a new reality; how do they support Ukraine without the backing of the US? And on a broader scale, do they need to forge a new European security alliance - one that doesn’t rely on what Donald Trump wants.

Will Donald Trump pull the US out of NATO?

The new US president has never publicly said that he intends to pull the US out of NATO, but that hasn’t stopped European leaders fearing that he might.

Philip Gordon, who was National Security Advisor to Vice President Kamala Harris from 2022 to 2025, and would have been the US’ Secretary of State today had the election turned out differently, has warned us much.

Gordon has spent his entire career working with Europeans, with whom he shared the view that America must have interest in European security.

“We are stronger together,” he says.

“But can I honestly sit here and tell you today that Europeans have nothing to worry about on that score? Given what we've seen? No.”

Even if Trump did want to pull out of NATO, legislation has been passed that would require all of Congress to agree on the decision. This, Emily Maitlis says, could be a “red line” for Republican Senators who up until now, have supported Trump’s every want.

But Gordon disagrees, predicting that if Trump wanted to pull out of NATO, “98% of Senators and House Republicans would support it”.

“Don't kid yourself,” he says.

“That's not even close to a red line. If violent overthrow and storming the capital isn't a red line, pulling out of NATO isn’t.”

The reality is, Gordon believes, that Trump’s actions could lead to NATO collapsing, regardless of whether he officially pulls out.

“More than anything, NATO is the belief in the minds of our allies and a potential adversary that the United States would go to war to defend a NATO ally.”

For the essence of NATO to hold, enemies of the alliance would need to believe that the US would be willing to go to war were those enemies to invade any member state.

“Putin, for example, would have to believe that if he invades Latvia, the United States would consider that a treaty violation and respond,” Gordon explains.

“Does one think, given everything Donald Trump has said and done, that he would be on board for that?

“If he's not, it doesn't matter if we're formally still in NATO, the effect is the same, that the Europeans have reason to doubt it and Putin potentially has reason to challenge it.”

What should Europe do?

“It wouldn't be shocking at all if the United States either left NATO entirely or just gutted it by implying it wouldn't support Europe,” Gordon says.

“You cannot watch what has gone on over the past weeks and more without reaching the conclusion that Europe might be on its own when it comes to European security or defence of Ukraine.”

That is the conclusion Friedrich Merz, who's expected to become Germany's next chancellor, has come to.

Upon his Christian Democratic Union party winning Germany’s election last month, he said his priority was unity in Europe and that Trump’s recent actions have shown "the Americans are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe".

He went on to say; "Step by step, we can really achieve independence from the US".

For years Americans have wanted Europeans to contribute more defence spending, but they “were never scared enough to do so,” Gordon says.

But the time to be scared has come - Russia is a genuine threat and there is, as Merz states, real doubt about whether Europeans have the backing of the United States.

These things, combined with pressure from Trump, have led Keir Starmer to increase the UK’s defence spending from 2.3% to 2.5%, with a view to increase it again to 3% by the end of parliament. The Prime Minister announced the news days before he flew to Washington D.C for his first visit with President Trump.

Gordon says he’s been “impressed” with European leaders' response as they walk the tightrope of trying to keep good relations with the US, whilst also continuing to support Ukraine rather than completely rolling over to Trump.

“I think that’s the smart response,” he says.

What’s The News Agents’ take?

“The strategic question that we all face now is: Is NATO in a bit of peril, and if we just increase our defence spending, everything will be alright again? Or is NATO done?,” Jon Sopel says.

If Merz’s comments are anything to go by, it appears he believes the latter.

Lewis Goodall says the German leader’s comments were “extraordinary”.

“He said it is unclear whether we will speak of NATO in its present shape by the time of NATO's June Summit.

“He said he's absolutely under no illusions about Trump and that Germany and Europe needs independence from the United States, who pretty much no longer cares about the fate of Europe.”

But Keir Starmer’s attitude has been quite different to that of his German counterpart, claiming that he still believes the US is a “reliable ally.”

“The president made absolutely clear his commitment to Article 5 of NATO,” during their meeting in Washington, Starmer said.

“He made it clear he would have our backs.”

The contrast in both leaders’ interpretation of US support for European allies couldn’t be more stark.

“You've got some politicians saying: 'We can duck and dive on this. We can kiss the ring. We can keep him on side enough to keep NATO going and alive for the next four years’,” Lewis says.

“There are other politicians going: 'It's over. It's done. Trump might not even be an aberration, and we need to stop deluding ourselves and wake up to the new strategic reality,” Lewis says.

A rework of NATO to form some kind of European version of the treaty, would bring up “huge structural, boring questions,” Jon says.

“A new European kind of defence force would require a complete re-evaluation of the architecture that was put in place after the Second World War, which has served Europe, Western Europe, pretty damn well since then.”

Listen to the latest episode of The News Agents.